What is Adynxx Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Adynxx Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Adynxx (Adynxx) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
100 Pine Street, Suite 500, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94111
Adynxx Inc is a United States-based clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. It is focused on the development of a new class of therapeutics called transcription factor decoys and bringing to the market novel, disease-modifying products to address unmet needs in the treatment of pain and inflammation. Its pipeline includes brivoligide, a Phase 2 drug candidate intended to address postoperative pain, and AYX2, a pre-clinical candidate intended to treat chronic syndromes of pain, including both inflammatory and neuropathic pain.
Executives
| Gregory J. Flesher |
director |
19900 MACARTHUR BLVD., SUITE 550, IRVINE CA 92612 |
| Brian H Dovey |
10 percent owner |
ONE PALMER SQUARE, PRINCETON NJ 08542 |
| Donald C. Manning |
officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER |
C/O PACIRA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 5 SYLVAN WAY, SUITE 300, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054 |
| Pierre Legault |
director |
P.O. BOX 1028, C/O STONE MANAGEMENT LLC, BERWYNE PA 19312 |
| Domain Partners Viii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O DOMAIN ASSOCIATES, L.L.C., ONE PALMER SQUARE, SUITE 515, PRINCETON NJ 08542 |
| Dp Viii Associates, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O DOMAIN ASSOCIATES, L.L.C., ONE PALMER SQUARE, SUITE 515, PRINCETON NJ 08542 |
| Eckard Weber |
director |
C/O DOMAIN ASSOCIATES, ONE PALO SQ, PRINCETON NJ 08542 |
| Brian K Halak |
10 percent owner |
C/O DOMAIN ASSOCIATES, ONE PALMER SQUARE, PRINCETON NJ 08542 |
| Nicole Vitullo |
10 percent owner |
3030 SCIENCE PARK ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| James C Blair |
10 percent owner |
5880 PACIFIC CENTER BLVD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121-4204 |
| Jesse I Treu |
10 percent owner |
|
| Dennis Podlesak |
director |
C/O PENINSULA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1751 HARBOR BAY PARKWAY, ALAMEDA CA 94502 |
| Tpg Group Holdings (sbs) Advisors, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
C/O TPG GLOBAL, LLC, 301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| James G Coulter |
10 percent owner |
301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
| David Bonderman |
10 percent owner |
301 COMMERCE STREET, SUITE 3300, FORT WORTH TX 76102 |
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