What is Allied Gaming & Entertainment Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Allied Gaming & Entertainment Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Allied Gaming & Entertainment (Allied Gaming & Entertainment) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
745 Fifth Avenue, Suite 500, New York, NY, USA, 10151
Allied Gaming & Entertainment Inc is an experiential entertainment company focused on providing a growing world of gamers with various experiences through renowned assets, products, and services.
Executives
| Knighted Pastures Llc |
10 percent owner |
1933 S. BROADWAY, SUITE 746, LOS ANGELES CA 90007 |
| Roy Choi |
other: Managing Member of 10% holder |
1933 S. BROADWAY, SUITE 746, LOS ANGELES CA 90007 |
| Yuanfei Qu |
director |
745 FIFTH AVE, SUITE 500, NEW YORK NY 10151 |
| Yushi Guo |
director |
745 FIFTH AVE, SUITE 500, NEW YORK NY 10151 |
| Guanzhou Qin |
director |
17877 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 300, IRVING CA 92614 |
| Adam J Pliska |
director, officer: President |
5700 WILSHIRE BOULEVARD, SUITE 350, LOS ANGELES CA 90036 |
| Roy Lawrence Anderson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
17877 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 300, IRVING CA 92614 |
| Alexander Misch |
director |
17872 GILLETTE AVENUE, BUILDING C, 2ND FLOOR, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| Jerry Lewin |
director |
JINHUA INDUSTRIAL ZONE, JINHUA ZHEJIANG PROVINCE F4 321016 |
| Libing Wu |
director |
350 LIGHTING WAY, SECAUCUS NJ 07094 |
| Jingsheng Lu |
director, 10 percent owner |
FLOOR 3, BUILDING NO. 20, XINYUANLI WEST, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 #000 |
| Yangyang Li |
director, 10 percent owner |
10/F TOWER B FAIRMONT NO. 1 BUILDING, 33# COMMUNITY, GUANGSHUN NORTH ST, CHAOYANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100102 |
| Anthony A Hung |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
17877 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92614 |
| Element Partners, Llc |
10 percent owner |
950 TOWER LANE,, SUITE 1125, FOSTER CITY CA 94404 |
| Lyle Berman |
director |
10275 WAYZATA BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, MINNETONKA MN 55305 |
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