Aiadvertising (Aiadvertising) Predictability Rank

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What is Aiadvertising Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Aiadvertising Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Aiadvertising (Aiadvertising) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Aiadvertising Inc (OTCPK:AIAD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1114 South Saint Mary’s, Suite 120, San Antonio, TX, USA, 78210

Website

https://www.aiadvertising.com

Aiadvertising Inc is a technology-driven provider of digital advertising solutions. The company's proprietary software empowers marketers by intelligently automating data-driven, repetitive tasks, and improving their ability to make predictions at scale. Its software platform harnesses the power of machine learning and artificial intelligence to eliminate guesswork, predict what works, and prove advertising's impact on financial results.

Executives

Hicks Thomas O Jr	director	100 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75201
James B. Renacci	director	C/O HILL INTERNATIONAL, INC., 2005 MARKET ST, 17TH FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Texas Star Management Company, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	18 DESTA DR., MIDLAND TX 79705
Hexagon Partners, Ltd.	director, 10 percent owner	18 DESTA DR., MIDLAND TX 79705
Timothy M. Dunn	director, 10 percent owner	18 DESTA DR., C/O TEXAS STAR MANAGEMENT COMPANY, LLC, MIDLAND TX 79705
John C Small	officer: Chief Financial Officer	25 ROCK SHELTER ROAD, NEW YORK NY 10597
Mark D Fruehan	director	C/O AXESSTEL, INC., 6815 FLANDERS DR. #210, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Virginia Rose O'meara	director	809 CEDAR RD., SOUTHPORT CT 06890
Gerard Francis Hug,	10 percent owner	19 GUNTHERS VIEW, TOWACO NJ 07082
Maria Isabel Gongora	officer: Chief Financial Officer	3790 BRAHMAN RD., BULVERDE TX 78163
Richard Berliner	director	C/O DIGITAL LOCATIONS, INC., 3700 STATE STREET, SUITE 350, SANTA BARBARA CA 93105
Kevin Michael Myers	director	321 SIXTH STREET, SAN ANTONIO TX 78215
Bradley James Parscale	director	618 CONTADORA, SAN ANTONIO TX 78258
Jonathan L Lei	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, President, CFO, Secretary	6144 CALLE REAL, SUITE 200, SANTA BARBARA CA 93117
Thunder Innovations Llc	10 percent owner	297 KINGSBURY GRADE, #100, PO BOX 4470, STATELINE NV 89449