What is AIM ImmunoTech Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
AIM ImmunoTech Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
AIM ImmunoTech (AIM ImmunoTech) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2117 SW Highway 484, Ocala, FL, USA, 34473
AIM ImmunoTech Inc is an immuno-pharma company focused on research and development of therapeutics to treat immune disorders, viral and cancer diseases. AIM's flagship products include Ampligen (Rintatolimod), a drug of large macromolecular RNA molecules for cancer and viral diseases and drug Alferon N Injection for a category of STD infection. Clinical trials of Ampligen include studies of cancer patients with renal cell carcinoma, malignant melanoma, colorectal cancer, advanced recurrent ovarian cancer and triple negative metastatic breast cancer. The company is also advancing Ampligen as a potential treatment for COVID-19. FDA has authorized the first human trial assessing the safety and effectiveness of Ampligen in combination with interferon alfa-2b, in cancer patients with COVID-19.
Executives
| Thomas K. Equels |
director, officer: Vice Chairman of Board |
2117 SOUTHWEST HIGHWAY 484, OCALA FL 34473 |
| Nancy Bryan |
director |
550 HILLS DRIVE, 3RD FLOOR, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921 |
| Stewart Appelrouth |
director |
2117 SW HIGHWAY 484, OCALA FL 34473 |
| Rodino Peter W. Iii |
director |
2117 SOUTHWEST HIGHWAY 484, OCALA FL 34473 |
| Ellen M Lintal |
officer: CFO |
2117 SW HWY 484, OCALA FL 34473 |
| William M Mitchell |
director |
2117 SW HWY 484, OCALA FL 34473 |
| Wayne S. Springate |
officer: VP of Operations |
600 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2, RIVERTON NJ 08077 |
| David R Strayer |
other: Medical Director |
600 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2, RIVERTON NJ 08077 |
| Adam Pascale |
officer: CFO |
600 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2, RIVERTON NJ 08077 |
| Ralph Christopher Cavalli |
officer: VP, Quality Control |
510 MURDOCH ROAD, PHILADELPHIA PA 19119 |
| Russel J Lander |
officer: VP of Process/QualityAssurance |
784 BAEDER ROAD, JENKINTOWN PA 19046 |
| Robert Iv Dickey |
officer: Senior Vice President |
320 WEST MERMAID LANE, PHILADELPHIA PA 19118 |
| Bernhardt Charles Thomas Iii |
officer: CFO |
23 BIRCH ROAD, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Steven D Spence |
director |
250 EAST 54TH STREET APARTMENT 36C, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Anthony Bonelli |
officer: President & COO |
P.O. BOX 521, NEW VERNON NJ 07976 |
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