What is American Resources Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
American Resources Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
American Resources (American Resources) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
12115 Visionary Way, Fishers, IN, USA, 46038
American Resources Corp is a next-generation, environmentally and socially responsible supplier of high-quality raw materials to the new infrastructure market. The firm is focused on the extraction and processing of metallurgical carbon, an essential ingredient used in steelmaking, critical and rare earth minerals for the electrification market, and reprocessed metal to be recycled. The firm has a growing portfolio of operations located in the Central Appalachian basin of eastern Kentucky and southern West Virginia where premium quality metallurgical carbon and rare earth mineral deposits are concentrated. Its business model provides a significant opportunity to scale its portfolio of assets to meet the growing global infrastructure and electrification markets.
Executives
| Kirk Patrick Taylor |
10 percent owner, officer: Chief Financial Officer |
8856 SOUTH STREET, FISHERS IN 46038 |
| Mark C. Jensen |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
8856 SOUTH STREET, FISHERS IN 46038 |
| Golden Properties Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
#500, 1177 WEST HASTINGS STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6E 2K3 |
| Thomas M. Sauve |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President |
8856 SOUTH STREET, FISHERS IN 46038 |
| Gerardine G. Botte |
director |
12115 VISIONARY WAY, SUITE 174, FISHERS IN 456038 |
| Michael G. Layman |
director |
7583 WILD MINT COURT, WESTERVILLE OH 43082 |
| Randal V. Stephenson |
director |
35 EAST 84TH STREET, APT. 4C, NEW YORK NY 10028 |
| Taplin Courtenay O. |
director |
9370 METCALF ROAD, WAITE HILL OH 44094 |
| Ian Sadler |
director |
10760 ELDORADO CIRCLE, NOBLESVILLE IN 46060 |
| Tarlis Thompson |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
PO BOX 606, FISHERS IN 46038 |
| William D Bishop |
director |
8856 SOUTH STREET, FISHERS IN 46038 |
| James C New |
director |
7289 GARDEN RD, SUITE 200, RIVIERA BEACH FL 33404 |
| High Tech Fueling, Service & Distribution, Inc. |
other: Corporation with common owners |
7135 COLLINS AVENUE, SUITE 624, MIAMI BEACH FL 33141 |
| Goran Antic |
10 percent owner |
7135 COLLINS AVE NO. 1234, MIAMI BEACH FL 33141 |
| Indrajith Andrew Weeraratne |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
7135 COLLINS AVE NO.624, MIAMI BEACH FL 33141 |
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