Artesian Resources (Artesian Resources) Predictability Rank

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What is Artesian Resources Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Artesian Resources Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Artesian Resources (Artesian Resources) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Artesian Resources Corp (NAS:ARTNA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ARTNB:USA

Address

664 Churchmans Road, Newark, DE, USA, 19702

Website

http://www.artesianwater.com

Artesian Resources Corp operates as the holding company of eight wholly-owned subsidiaries offering water, wastewater, and other services on the Delmarva Peninsula. It distributes and sells water, including water for public and private fire protection, to residential, commercial, industrial, municipal, and utility customers in the states of Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. The company is focusing on a wide spectrum of activities, which include identifying new and dependable sources of water supply; developing wells, treatment plants and delivery systems to get water to customers.

Executives

Nicholle Renee Taylor	director, officer: Director / Vice President	664 CHURCHMANS ROAD, NEWARK DE 19702
John M Thaeder	officer: Senior VP of Operations
Emerson Courtney A	officer: Gen Counsel & Asst Secretary	107 DODGE DRIVE, SMYRNA DE 19977
Dian C Taylor	director, officer: C.E.O. President
Kenneth R Biederman	director
Raymond T. Kelly	officer: VP of Information Technology	15 GABRIELLE CIRCLE, SWEDESBORO NJ 08085
Daniel Konstanski	officer: Vice President of Engineering	607 S CLAYTON STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19805
Eisenbrey John R Jr	director
Pierre A Anderson	officer: VP of Information Technology	664 CHURCHMANS ROAD, NEWARK DE 19702
William C Wyer	director
Michael Houghton	director	212 CLOVER DRIVE, HOCKESSIN DE 19707
Karl G. Randall	officer: Asst Secretary and Gen Counsel	664 CHURCHMANS ROAD, NEWARK DE 19702
Schreppler John J Ii	officer: VP and General Counsel
Joseph A Dinunzio	officer: Exec VP / Corp Secretary	664 CHURCHMANS ROAD, NEWARK DE 19702
David B Spacht	officer: CFO and Treasurer