What is Artesian Resources Predictability Rank?
4.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Artesian Resources Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Artesian Resources Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
664 Churchmans Road, Newark, DE, USA, 19702
Artesian Resources Corp operates as a holding company with a focus on water distribution and wastewater services. Its regulated utility segment includes subsidiaries providing water and wastewater services in Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. Water distribution spans residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal sectors, while wastewater services are offered primarily in Sussex County, Delaware. The company also engages in non-utility businesses, offering service line protection plans, engineering services, and contract operations for water and wastewater systems. The regulated utility segment constitutes the largest portion of the company's operations, subject to regulations by Delaware, Maryland, and Pennsylvania.
Executives
| Nicholle Renee Taylor |
director, officer: Director / Vice President |
664 CHURCHMANS ROAD, NEWARK DE 19702 |
| John M Thaeder |
officer: Senior VP of Operations |
|
| Emerson Courtney A |
officer: Gen Counsel & Asst Secretary |
107 DODGE DRIVE, SMYRNA DE 19977 |
| Dian C Taylor |
director, officer: C.E.O. President |
|
| Kenneth R Biederman |
director |
|
| Raymond T. Kelly |
officer: VP of Information Technology |
15 GABRIELLE CIRCLE, SWEDESBORO NJ 08085 |
| Daniel Konstanski |
officer: Vice President of Engineering |
607 S CLAYTON STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19805 |
| Eisenbrey John R Jr |
director |
|
| Pierre A Anderson |
officer: VP of Information Technology |
664 CHURCHMANS ROAD, NEWARK DE 19702 |
| William C Wyer |
director |
|
| Michael Houghton |
director |
212 CLOVER DRIVE, HOCKESSIN DE 19707 |
| Karl G. Randall |
officer: Asst Secretary and Gen Counsel |
664 CHURCHMANS ROAD, NEWARK DE 19702 |
| Schreppler John J Ii |
officer: VP and General Counsel |
|
| Joseph A Dinunzio |
officer: Exec VP / Corp Secretary |
664 CHURCHMANS ROAD, NEWARK DE 19702 |
| David B Spacht |
officer: CFO and Treasurer |
|
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