Altisource Portfolio Solutions (Altisource Portfolio Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is Altisource Portfolio Solutions Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Altisource Portfolio Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Altisource Portfolio Solutions (Altisource Portfolio Solutions) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » Real Estate » Altisource Portfolio Solutions SA (NAS:ASPS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

33, Boulevard Prince Henri, Luxembourg, LUX, L-1724

Website

https://www.altisource.com

Altisource Portfolio Solutions SA is an integrated service provider and marketplace for the real estate and mortgage industries. It operates via two reportable segment namely Servicer and Real Estate and Origination. The Servicer and Real Estate segment provides loan servicers and real estate investors with solutions and technologies that span the mortgage and real estate lifecycle. The Origination segment provides originators with solutions and technologies that span the mortgage origination lifecycle. Altisource primarily serves financial institutions, government-sponsored enterprises, and originators in the United States, with the majority of revenue flowing from field services and mortgage and real estate solutions.

Executives

Aldridge John G Jr	director	C/O ALTISOURCE PORTFOLIO SOLUTIONS S.A., 33, BOULEVARD PRINCE HENRI, LUXEMBOURG CITY N4 L-1724
Michelle D. Esterman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ALTISOURCE PORTFOLIO SOLUTIONS S.A., 33, BOULEVARD PRINCE HENRI, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-1724
William B Shepro	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O ALTISOURCE PORTFOLIO SOLUTIONS S.A., 33, BOULEVARD PRINCE HENRI, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-1724
Deer Park Road Management Company, Lp	10 percent owner	1195 BANGTAIL WAY, STEAMBOAT SPRINGS CO 80487
Mary Hickok	director	1195 BANGTAIL WAY, STEAMBOAT SPRINGS CO 80487
Roland Mueller-ineichen	director	GAALIMATT 35, RAIN V8 CH-6026
Gregory J. Ritts	officer: General Counsel	C/O ALTISOURCE PORTFOLIO SOLUTIONS S.A., 33, BOULEVARD PRINCE HENRI, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-1724
W Michael Linn	director	40, AVENUE MONTEREY, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2163
Marcello Mastioni	officer: PRES, REAL ESTATE MARKETPLACE	40, AVENUE MONTEREY, LUXEMBOURG CITY N4 L-2163
Scott Edward Burg	10 percent owner	1195 BANGTAIL WAY, STEAMBOAT SPRINGS CO 80487
Agatecreek Llc	10 percent owner	1195 BANGTAIL WAY, STEAMBOAT SPRINGS CO 80487
Indroneel Chatterjee	officer: Chief Financial Officer	40, AVENUE MONTEREY, LUXEMBOURG CITY N4 L-2163
Orin S Kramer	director	2050 CENTER AVE, SUITE 300, FORT LEE NJ 07024
Joseph L Morettini	director	1375 PORTMARNOCK DRIVE, ALPHARETTA GA 30005
Deer Park Road Management Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	1195 BANGTAIL WAY, STEAMBOAT SPRINGS CO 80487