ATN International (ATN International) Predictability Rank

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What is ATN International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ATN International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ATN International (ATN International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » ATN International Inc (NAS:ATNI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ATP:Germany

Address

500 Cummings Center, Suite 2450, Beverly, MA, USA, 01915

Website

https://www.atni.com

ATN International Inc is a telecommunications and utilities company. The company provides critical infrastructure-based communications and related information technology solutions. Its operating segments comprise of US Telecom, International Telecom, and Renewable Energy. The company earns revenue from its telecommunication and renewable energy operations.

Executives

Pamela F Lenehan	director	C/O AVID TECHNOLOGY, INC., ONE PARK WEST, TEWKSBURY MA 01876
Michael T Prior	officer: President and CEO	C/O ATLANTIC TELE NETWORK INC, 19 ESTATE THOMAS HAVEN SITE, ST THOMAS VI D8 999999999
Richard J Ganong	director	C/O ATN INTERNATIONAL, INC., 500 CUMMING, 500 CUMMINGS CENTER, SUITE 2450, BEVERLY MA 01915
Derek Hudson	director	C/O 500 CUMMINGS CENTER, SUITE 2450, BEVERLY MA 01915
Patricia Jacobs	director	ONE CITY CENTER, 5TH FLOOR, PORTLAND ME 04101
Justin D Benincasa	officer: CFO, Treasurer	C/O AMERICAN TOWER CORP, 116 HUNTINGTON AVE, BOSTON MA 02116
Justin M Leon	officer: SVP, Corporate Development	C/O 500 CUMMINGS CENTER, SUITE 2450, BEVERLY MA 01915
April Henry	director	C/O SCIENCE STRATEGIC ACQUISITION CORP., 1447 2ND STREET, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Prior Cornelius B Jr	officer: Executive Chairman
William F Kreisher	officer: Senior VP, Corporate Dev.	ATLANTIC TELE NETWORK, 10 DERBY SQUARE, SALEM MA 01970
James S Eisenstein	director	C/O AMERICAN TOWER CORP, 116 HUNTINGTON AVE, BOSTON MA 02116
John Clarke Kennedy	director	C/O ATN INTERNATIONAL, INC., 500 CUMMING, 500 CUMMINGS CENTER, SUITE 2450, BEVERLY MA 01915
Brad W Martin	officer: EVP - Operations	C/O ATN INTERNATIONAL, INC., 500 CUMMING, BEVERLY MA 01915
Mary Mabey	officer: SVP and General Counsel	ATN INTERNATIONAL, INC., 500 CUMMINGS CENTER, SUITE 2450, BEVERLY MA 01915
Leonard Q. Slap	officer: SVP and General Counsel	ATLANTIC TELE-NETWORK, INC., 600 CUMMINGS CENTER, BEVERLY MA 01915