Advent Convertible &ome Fund (Advent Convertible &ome Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Advent Convertible &ome Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Advent Convertible &ome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Advent Convertible &ome Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Advent Convertible &ome Fund (Advent Convertible &ome Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Advent Convertible & Income Fund (NYSE:AVK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

888 Seventh Avenue, 31st Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

http://www.guggenheiminvestments.com

Advent Convertible & Income Fund is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The fund's investment objective is to provide total return through a combination of capital appreciation and current income. The Fund invests in various sectors, such as communications, utilities, energy, industrial, technology, and others.

Executives

Tracy V Maitland	officer: President, other: Trustee	10865 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS,, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Nancy E. Stuebe	director, other: Trustee	227 W MONROE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
Advent Capital Management /de/	other: Investment Manager	888 SEVENTH AVENUE, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Stephen Ellwood	officer: CCO & Secretary	888 SEVENTH STREET, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Olin Kathleen Capital Management	officer: CCO and Secretary	888 7TH AVENUE 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Randall C Barnes	director, other: Trustee	2455 CORPORATE WEST DRIVE, LISLE IL 60187
Gerald L Seizert	director, other: Trustee	10865 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS,, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Michael A Smart	other: Trustee	10865 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS,, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Derek Medina	director	ABC NEWS, 47 WEST 66TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 100123
Tony Huang	officer: V.P. & Assistant Secretary	227 WEST MONROE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
Saba Capital Management, L.p.	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Boaz Weinstein	10 percent owner	405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174
Daniel Black	director, other: Trustee	C/O ADVENT CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 1065 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Ronald Nyberg	director	10865 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS,, 31ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Doug Teresko	other: Managing Director	1271 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 45TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10020