What is Banner Predictability Rank?
2.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Banner Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Banner (Banner) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10 South First Avenue, Walla Walla, WA, USA, 99362
Banner Corp is a bank holding company. It wholly owns one subsidiary bank, Banner Bank. The Bank's primary business is that of traditional banking institutions, accepting deposits and originating loans in locations surrounding its offices in Washington, Oregon, California and Idaho. Banner Bank also actively participates in the secondary mortgage market. A significant portion of the banks' portfolio is in residential construction and land loans to professional home builders and developers. Most of its revenue is net interest income.
Executives
| Mclean James P.g. |
officer: Executive Vice President |
10 SOUTH FIRST AVENUE, WALLA WALLA WA 99362 |
| Karen Harrison |
officer: Executive VP, Banner Bank |
10 S. FIRST AVENUE, WALLA WALLA WA 99362 |
| Roberto R Herencia |
director |
P.O. BOX 9146, SAN JUAN PR 00908 |
| John Clarence Pedersen |
director |
10 SOUTH FIRST AVENUE, WALLA WALLA WA 99362 |
| Kevin F Riordan |
director |
10 SOUTH FIRST AVENUE, WALLA WALLA WA 99362 |
| Robert Butterfield |
officer: Executive VP |
10 S. FIRST AVENUE, WALLA WALLA WA 99362 |
| Kenneth William Johnson |
officer: Executive VP, Banner Bank |
235 E. MAIN STREET, MIDLAND MI 48640 |
| Margot Copeland |
director |
10 S. FIRST AVENUE, WALLA WALLA WA 99362 |
| Paul J. Walsh |
director |
10 S. FIRST AVENUE, WALLA WALLA WA 99362 |
| David I Matson |
director |
C/O UNIONBANCAL CORP, 400 CALIFORNIA STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
| James M Costa |
officer: Executive VP, Banner Bank |
200 LAKE STREET EAST, WAYZATA MN 55391-1693 |
| Sherrey Luetjen |
officer: Executive VP |
10 S. FIRST AVENUE, WALLA WALLA WA 99362 |
| Peter Conner |
officer: Executive VP, Banner Bank |
10 SOUTH FIRST AVENUE, WALLA WALLA WA 99362 |
| Steven W Rust |
officer: Executive Vice President |
10 SOUTH 1ST AVENUE, WALLA WALLA WA 99362 |
| Ellen Rm Boyer |
director |
111 NORTH WALL STREET, SPOKANE WA 99201 |
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