BeiGene (BeiGene) Predictability Rank

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What is BeiGene Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BeiGene Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BeiGene (BeiGene) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » BeiGene Ltd (NAS:BGNE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

06160:Hong Kong 49B:Germany 49BA:Germany 688235:China B1GN34:Brazil

Address

c/o Mourant Governance Services (Cayman) Limited, 94 Solaris Avenue, Camana Bay, Grand Cayman, CYM, KY1-1108

Website

https://www.beigene.com

BeiGene Ltd is a commercial-stage biotechnology company. It is engaged in the discovery and development of molecularly targeted and immuno-oncology drugs for the treatment of cancer. The company has developed a proprietary cancer biology platform that addresses the importance of tumor-immune system interactions and the value of primary biopsies in developing new models to support its drug discovery effort. It has developed clinical-stage drug candidates that inhibit the important oncology targets Bruton's tyrosine kinase, or BTK; RAF dimer protein complex and PARP family of proteins, and an immuno-oncology agent that inhibits the immune checkpoint protein receptor PD-1. Its geographical segments are China, the United States, and the Rest of the world.

Executives

Baker Bros. Advisors Lp	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Chan Henry Lee	officer: SVP, General Counsel	55 CAMBRIDGE PARKWAY, SUITE 700W, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Julia Aijun Wang	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MOURANT GOVERNANCE SERVICES (CAYMAN), 94 SOLARIS AVE, CAMANA BAY, PO BOX 1348, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
Lai Wang	officer: Global Head of R&D	C/O MOURANT GOVERNANCE SERVICES (CAYMAN), 94 SOLARIS AVE, CAMANA BAY, PO BOX 1348, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
Xiaobin Wu	officer: President and GM China	C/O MOURANT OZANNES CRP SVCS CAYMAN LTD, 94 SOLARIS AVENUE, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
Sanders Corazon (corsee) D.	director	C/O MOLECULAR TEMPLATES, INC., 9301 AMBERGLEN BLVD, SUITE 100, AUSTIN VI 78729
Hillhouse Capital Advisors, Ltd.	10 percent owner	OFFICE #122, WINDWARD 3 BUILDING, REGATTA OFFICE PARK, WEST BAY ROAD, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-9006
Xiaodong Wang	director	C/O MOURANT OZANNES CORPORATE SERVICES, 94 SOLARIS AVENUE, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
John Oyler	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Office	C/O GENTA INC, 3550 GENERAL ATOMICS CT BLDG 9, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Alessandro Riva	director	C/O CENTURY THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3675 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19104
Margaret Dugan	director	C/O MOURANT GOVERNANCE SERVICES (CAYMAN), 94 SOLARIS AVE, CAMANA BAY, PO BOX 1348, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
Jane Huang	officer: CMO, Hematology	C/O MOURANT OZANNES CORPORATE SERVICES, 94 SOLARIS AVENUE, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
Amgen Inc	10 percent owner	ONE AMGEN CENTER DRIVE, THOUSAND OAKS CA 91320
Howard Liang	officer: CFO & CSO	C/O MOURANT OZANNES CORPORATE SERVICES, 94 SOLARIS AVENUE, CAMANA BAY, GRAND CAYMAN E9 KY1-1108
Timothy Yung-cheng Chen	director	LSI LOGIC CORP, 1621 BARBER LANE, MILPITAS CA 95035