What is BM Technologies Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
BM Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
BM Technologies (BM Technologies) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
201 King of Prussia Road, Suite 350, Wayne, PA, USA, 19087
BM Technologies Inc provides digital banking and disbursement services to consumers and students nationwide through a full service fintech banking platform, accessible to customers anywhere and anytime through digital channels. It facilitates deposits and banking services between a customer and its Partner Bank, Customers Bank, which is a related party and is a Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) insured bank. Tje company has four primary revenue sources: interchange and card revenue, servicing fees, account fees, and university fees. The majority of revenues are driven by customer activity (deposits, spend, transactions, etc.) and may be paid or passed through by Customers Bank, universities, or paid directly by customers.
Executives
| Michael Richard Pavone |
director |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 650, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Rajinder Singh |
director |
C/O BM TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 650, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Warren Taylor |
officer: Executive Vice President |
1015 PENN AVENUE, SUITE 103, WYOMISSING PA 19610 |
| John J Dolan |
director |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 350, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| James Francis Dullinger |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
C/O IOTA COMMUNICATIONS, INC., 645 HAMILTON STREET, SUITE 400, ALLENTOWN PA 18101 |
| James M. Donahue |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 350, C/O BM TECHNOLOGIES, INC., WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Aaron Hodari |
director |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 350, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Andrew J. Dunklau |
officer: President and Secretary |
1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS 11TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Schechter Private Capital, Llc |
10 percent owner |
251 PIERCE STREET, BIRMINGHAM MI 48009 |
| Pankaj Dinodia |
director |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 350, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Robert H Ramsey |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 350, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Marcy Schwab |
director |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 350, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Brent Hurley |
director |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 350, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Robert Diegel |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 350, WAYNE PA 19087 |
| Mike Gill |
director |
201 KING OF PRUSSIA ROAD, SUITE 350, WAYNE PA 19087 |
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