Cascadian Therapeutics (Cascadian Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Cascadian Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cascadian Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cascadian Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cascadian Therapeutics (Cascadian Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Cascadian Therapeutics Inc (NAS:CASC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.cascadianrx.com

Cascadian Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focusing in developing innovative therapeutic product candidates for the treatment of cancer. Its objective is to discover, develop and commercialize novel compounds that have the potential to improve the lives and outcomes of cancer patients. The company's clinical-stage product candidate includes ONT-380, an orally active and selective small molecule HER2 inhibitor. In addition, it is also engaged in developing preclinical product candidates in oncology using its Checkpoint kinase 1 kinase inhibitor and protocell technology. All the business activity of the firm is functioned through the region of United States.

Executives

Ted W Love	director	C/O GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS, INC., 400 EAST JAMIE COURT, SUITE 101, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Gwen A. Fyfe	director	C/O ARRAY BIOPHARMA INC., 3200 WALNUT STREET, BOULDER CO 80301
Steven P James	director	C/O OCERA THERAPUETICS, 525 UNIVERSITY AVENUE, SUITE 610, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Julia Marie Eastland	officer: CFO & CBO	C/O CASCADIAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3101 WESTERN AVE., SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98121
Christopher S Henney	director	10505 ROSELLE STREET, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Robert Azelby	director	307 WESTLAKE AVE. NORTH, STE 300, SEATTLE WA 98109
Daniel K Spiegelman	director	MYRIAD GENETICS, 320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84003
Scott Dunseth Myers	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O CASCADIAN THERAPEUTICS, INC., 3101 WESTERN AVE., SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98121
Growth Equity Opportunities Iv, Llc	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Nea 15 Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Nea Partners 15, L.p.	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
New Enterprise Associates 15, L.p.	10 percent owner	1954 GREENSPRING DRIVE, SUITE 600, TIMONIUM MD 21093
Jon Sakoda	10 percent owner	2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Florence Anthony A. Jr.	10 percent owner	5425 WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 800, CHEVY CHASE MD 20815
Peter W. Sonsini	10 percent owner	2855 SAND HILL ROAD, MENLO PARK CA 94025

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