China Biologic Products Holdings (China Biologic Products Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is China Biologic Products Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Biologic Products Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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China Biologic Products Holdings (China Biologic Products Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » China Biologic Products Holdings Inc (NAS:CBPO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

19 Chaoyang Park Road, 18th Floor, Jialong International Building, Chaoyang District, Beijing, CHN, 100125

Website

http://www.chinabiologic.com

China Biologic Products Holdings Inc is a biopharmaceutical company principally engaged in the research, development, manufacturing and sales of human plasma-based products in China. The company operates its business through two majority owned subsidiaries, Shandong Taibang and Guizhou Taibang. China Biologic's product pipeline includes a variety of dosages across multiple product categories. Its principal products are human albumin and immunoglobulin for intravenous injection. All of the company's products are prescription medicines administered in the form of injections. China Biologic's sales model focuses on direct sales to hospitals and inoculation centers and is complemented by distributor sales.

Executives

Zhijing Cbpo Liu	officer: Corporate Vice President	19 CHAOYANG PARK ROAD 18/F, JIALONG INTERNATIONAL BUILDING BEIJING F4 100125
Sean Shao	director	21ST FLOOR, EVERBRIGHT BANK BUILDING, ZHUZILIN, FUTIAN DISTRICT, SHENZHEN, GUANGDONG F4 518040
David Gao	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/ BEIJING MED-PHARM CORPORATION 600 W. GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 400 PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Albert Yeung	director	C/O BEIJING MED-PHARM CORPORATION 600 WEST GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 400 PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
David Hui Li	director	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE NEW YORK NY 10017
Min Fang	director	UNIT 2206, BUND CENTER OFFICE TOWER NO. 222 YANAN ROAD (EAST) SHANGHAI F4 200002
Zhijun Tong	director	C/O BMP SUNSTONE CORPORATION 600 W. GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 400 PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Joseph Chow	director	10110 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD SUITE C SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Yungang Lu	director	4TH FLOOR, ZHONGDIAN INFORMATION TOWER 6 ZHONGGUANCUN S. ST., HAIDIAN DIST. BEIJING F4 100086
Warburg Pincus Llc	10 percent owner	450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Wp X Biologics Llc	director, 10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE NEW YORK X1 10017
Warburg Pincus X Partners, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus Private Equity X, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus X Gp L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Warburg Pincus X, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O WARBURG PINCUS LLC, 450 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017