CONSOL Energy (CONSOL Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is CONSOL Energy Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CONSOL Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

CONSOL Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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CONSOL Energy (CONSOL Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Other Energy Sources » CONSOL Energy Inc (NYSE:CEIX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

C9X:Germany C9X:Germany

Address

275 Technology Drive, Suite 101, Canonsburg, PA, USA, 15317-9565

Website

https://www.consolenergy.com

CONSOL Energy Inc is a producer and exporter of high-BTU bituminous thermal coal. It owns and operates longwall mining operations in the nation and export terminals on the Eastern seaboard. The principal activity involves mining, preparation, and marketing of thermal coal, sold to power generators. Its operating segment includes PAMC (Pennsylvania Mining Complex); CONSOL Marine Terminal and Other. The company generates maximum revenue from the PAMC segment.

Executives

James A Brock	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1000 CONSOL ENERGY DRIVE, CANONSBURG PA 15317
Martha A Wiegand	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	1000 CONSOL ENERGY DRIVE, CANONSBURG PA 15317
Platt Joseph P Jr	director	HENRY W. OLIVER BLDG., 535 SMITHFIELD ST., PITTSBURGH PA 15222
John T Mills	director	MARATHON OIL CORP, 5555 SAN FELIPE ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77056
Kurt R. Salvatori	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	1000 CONSOL ENERGY DRIVE, CANONSBURG PA 15317
Valli Perera	director	C/O CONSOL ENERGY INC., 275 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE SUITE 101, CANONSBURG PA 15317
Cassandra Chia-wei Pan	director	C/O CONSOL ENERGY INC., 275 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SUITE 101, CANONSBURG PA 15317
John Rothka	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	2970 HENDERSON AVENUE, WASHINGTON PA 15301
Sophie Bergeron	director	1000 CONSOL ENERGY DRIVE, SUITE 100, CANONSBURG PA 15317
Dme Capital Management, Lp	other: Former 10% Owner	140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Dme Advisors Gp, L.l.c.	other: Former 10% Owner	140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Dme Advisors, Lp	other: Former 10% Owner	140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Greenlight Capital Inc	other: Former 10% Owner	140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
David Einhorn	other: Former 10% Owner	140 EAST 45TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017
Matthew T Wood	10 percent owner	60 CHARLOTTE STREET, LONDON W1T 2NU X0 00000