CPS Technologies (CPS Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is CPS Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CPS Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CPS Technologies (CPS Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » CPS Technologies Corp (NAS:CPSH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

111 South Worcester Street, Norton, MA, USA, 02766-2102

Website

https://www.cpstechnologysolutions.com

CPS Technologies Corp provides material solutions to the transportation, automotive, energy, computing/Internet, telecommunications, aerospace, defense, and oil and gas end markets. Its primary material solution is metal matrix composites (MMCs), which are a class of materials consisting of a combination of metal and ceramic. The company designs, manufactures and sells custom MMC components, which manages the performance and reliability of systems in the end markets. It also provides baseplates and housings used in radar, satellite and avionics applications. The company provides lids and heat spreaders used with integrated circuits in Internet switches and routers.

Executives

Brian T Mackey	officer: CEO	792 WEST STREET, C108, MANSFIELD MA 02048
Ralph M Norwood	officer: Chief Financial Officer	111 SOUTH WORCESTER STREET, NORTON MA 02766
Peregrine Financial Corp	10 percent owner	222 ROSEWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 530, DANVERS MA 01923
Peregrine Trust Company, Llc	10 percent owner	222 ROSEWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 530, DANVERS MA 01923
Peregrine Holdings Llc	10 percent owner	222 ROSEWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 530, DANVERS MA 01923
Phoenix Venture Partners, Inc.	10 percent owner	222 ROSEWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 530, DANVERS MA 01923
Ard Master Lp	10 percent owner
Grant C Bennett	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO
Griffith Charles Kellogg Jr	officer: Chief Financial Officer	111 SOUTH WORCESTER STREET, NORTON MA 02766
Daniel C Snow	director	5 LODGE RD., BELMONT MA 02478
Thomas M Culligan	director	3000 TAFT STREET, HOLLYWOOD FL 33021
Michael E Mccormack	officer: Chief Operating Officer	111 SOUTH WORCESTER STREET, NORTON MA 02766
Thomas E Breen	officer: SVP, Sales & Marketing	111 SOUTH WORCESTER STREET, NORTON MA 02766
Richard W Adams	officer: Senior Vice-President & CTO	111 S. WORCESTER ST., NORTON MA 02766
Charles Darosa	officer: Vice-President, Operations	111 S. WORCESTER STREET, NORTON MA 02766