CuriosityStream (CuriosityStream) Predictability Rank

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What is CuriosityStream Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CuriosityStream Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CuriosityStream (CuriosityStream) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » CuriosityStream Inc (NAS:CURI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3QT1:Germany

Address

8484 Georgia Avenue, Suite 700, Silver Spring, MD, USA, 20910

Website

https://www.curiositystream.com

CuriosityStream Inc is a media and entertainment company. It offers premium video programming across the principal categories of factual entertainment, including science, history, society, nature, lifestyle, and technology. Its mission is to provide premium real entertainment that informs, enchants, and inspires. Its product and services are Direct to Consumer Business, Partner Direct Business, Bundled Distribution, Content Licensing, Enterprise Subscriptions, and Others. The majority of the revenue comes from the Direct to Consumer Business.

Executives

John S Hendricks	director, 10 percent owner	2160 GOLD STREET, ALVISO CA 95002
Peter Westley	officer: Chief Financial Officer	AVID TECHNOLOGY, 75 NETWORK DRIVE, BURLINGTON MA 01803
Andrew Hendricks	director	8484 GEORGIA AVE., SUITE 700, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Patrick J. Keeley	director	8484 GEORGIA AVE, SUITE 700, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Elizabeth Ann Hendricks	director	8484 GEORGIA AVE, SUITE 700, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Michael Nikzad	director	9261 WARBLER WAY, LOS ANGELES CA 90069
Jonathan Huberman	director	C/O IOMEGA CORPORATION, 10955 VISTA SORRENTO PARKWAY, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Matthew Blank	director	TWO PENNSYLVANIA PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
Clinton Larry Stinchcomb	director, officer: President and CEO	8484 GEORGIA AVE, SUITE 700, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Devin James Emery	officer: CPO and EVP Content Strategy	8484 GEORGIA AVE, SUITE 700, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Jason Keith Eustace	officer: CFO and Treasurer	8484 GEORGIA AVE, SUITE 700, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Theresa Ellen Cudahy	officer: COO, GC and Secretary	8484 GEORGIA AVE, SUITE 700, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Ana Cecilia Cerna	officer: Controller	8484 GEORGIA AVE, SUITE 700, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Hendricks Factual Media Llc	director, 10 percent owner	8484 GEORGIA AVE, SUITE 700, SILVER SPRING MD 20910
Paul J Glazer	10 percent owner	250 WEST 55TH ST, SUITE 30A, NEW YORK NY 10019