Amcon Distributing Co (Amcon Distributing Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Amcon Distributing Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Amcon Distributing Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Amcon Distributing Co (Amcon Distributing Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Retail - Defensive » Amcon Distributing Co (AMEX:DIT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7405 Irvington Road, Omaha, NE, USA, 68122

Website

https://www.amcon.com

Amcon Distributing Co is engaged in the wholesale and retail distribution of consumer products such as cigarettes, tobacco, confectionery, health food, and others. It operates in two segments: Wholesale distribution segment distributing consumer products to the retail outlets including convenience stores, grocery stores, liquor stores, drug stores, and tobacco shops in the Central, Rocky Mountain, and Southern regions of the United States; and the Retail health food segment is a specialty retailer of natural/organic groceries and dietary supplements throughout the Midwest and Florida. The company earns a majority of the revenue from the Wholesale distribution segment.

Executives

Kathleen M Evans	director, officer: President	15701 NORTH 47TH ST, OMAHA NE 68152
Charles J. Schmaderer	officer: VP,Controller,Secretary	7405 IRVINGTON ROAD, OMAHA NE 68122
Jeremy W Hobbs	director	444 NORTH MICHIGAN AVE, STE 2050, CHICAGO IL 60611
John R Loyack	director	ALVARADO SQUARE MS 2818, ALBUQUERQUE NM 87158
William F Wright	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman	1431 STRATFORD CT, DEL MAR CA 92014
Timothy R Pestotnik	director	600 W BROADWAY, STE 2600, SAN DIEGO CA 92101
Stanley Mayer	director
Christopher H Atayan	director, officer: CEO and Vice Chairman	C/O SLUSSER ASSOCIATES, INC., 153 EAST 53RD STREET, NEW YORK NY 10022
Andrew Charles Plummer	officer: Chief Financial Officer	18325 JEFFERSON ST, OMAHA NE 68135
Eric J Hinkefent	officer: President of CNF and HFA	ROUTE 5, BOX 445, COWETA OK 74429
Raymond F Bentele	director	C/O MALLINCKRODT GROUP INC, 7733 FORSYTH BLVD, ST LOUIS MO 63105
Philip E Campbell	officer: SVP - Planning and Compliance	1302 ELMSHADE COVE, ROUND ROCK TX 78664
Draupnir Llc	10 percent owner	500 N DEARBORN, 2ND FL, CHICAGO IL 60610
Allen D Petersen	director, 10 percent owner	122 WEST COUNTY LINE ROAD, BARRINGTON HILLS IL 60010
Dawson Foundation Alexander	10 percent owner	4045 SOUTH SPENCER STREEET, SUITE 312, LAS VEGAS NV 89119