What is Enterprise Bancorp Predictability Rank?
3.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Enterprise Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Enterprise Bancorp (Enterprise Bancorp) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
222 Merrimack Street, Lowell, MA, USA, 01852
Enterprise Bancorp Inc is a holding company. The Company is engaged in the business of gathering deposits from the general public and investing in loans and investment securities. Through the Bank and its subsidiaries, the Company offers a range of commercial, residential and consumer loan products, deposit products and cash management services, as well as wealth management and wealth services.
Executives
| Gino J Baroni |
director |
222 MERRIMACK STREET, LOWELL MA 01852 |
| Michael T Putziger |
director |
C/O NEW HAMPSHIRE THRIFT BANCSHARES, 9 MAIN STREET, NEWPORT NH 03773 |
| Ken S Ansin |
director |
390 GOODRICH ST, LUNENBURG MA 01462 |
| George L Duncan |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
222 MERRIMACK ST, LOWELL MA 01852 |
| Stephen J Irish |
officer: EVP - Principal Subsidiary |
222 MERRIMACK ST, LOWELL MA 01852 |
| Ryan C Dunn |
officer: EVP-Principal Subsidiary |
C/O ENTERPRISE BANK, 222 MERRIMACK STREET, LOWELL MA 01852 |
| Mary Jane King |
director |
222 MERRIMACK STREET, LOWELL MA 01852 |
| Luis M Pedroso |
director |
222 MERRIMACK STREET, LOWELL MA 01852 |
| Diane J Silva |
officer: EVP - Principal Subsidiary |
222 MERRIMACK STREET, LOWELL MA 01852 |
| Anita R Worden |
director |
C/O ENTERPRISE BANK, 222 MERRIMACK STREET, LOWELL MA 01852 |
| John A Koutsos |
director |
222 MERRIMACK STREET, LOWELL MA 01852 |
| Peter Rayno |
officer: EVP - Principal Subsidiary |
C/O ENTERPRISE BANK, 222 MERRIMACK STREET, LOWELL MA 01852 |
| Joseph R Lussier |
officer: EVP-Principal Subsidiary |
C/O ENTERPRISE BANK, 222 MERRIMACK STREET, LOWELL MA 01852 |
| Keith N Soucie |
officer: EVP-Principal Subsidiary |
C/O ENTERPRISE BANK, 222 MERRIMACK STREET, LOWELL MA 01852 |
| Carol L Reid |
director |
C/O AVID TECHNOLOGY INC, ONE PARK WEST, TEWKSBURY MA 01876 |
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