Energizer Holdings (Energizer Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Energizer Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Energizer Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Energizer Holdings (Energizer Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Energizer Holdings Inc (NYSE:ENR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

533 Maryville University Drive, Saint Louis, MO, USA, 63141

Website

https://www.energizerholdings.com

Energizer Holdings Inc makes and distributes household batteries, specialty batteries, and lighting products. Energizer offers batteries using lithium, alkaline, carbon-zinc, nickel-metal hydride, zinc-air, and silver oxide technologies. These products are sold under the Energizer, Rayovac, Varta and Eveready brands at performance and premium price segments. It also offers auto care products in the appearance, fragrance, performance, and air conditioning recharge product categories. The company operates in two geographical segments: Americas and International, of which the majority of its revenue is derived from the Americas segment.

Executives

Robin Vauth	officer: EVP, International	533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DRIVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63141
Mark Stephen Lavigne	officer: EXECUTIVE VP, COO	533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DRIVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63141
Bill G Armstrong	director	P O BOX 618, SAINT LOUIS MO 63101
Michael A Lampman	officer: EVP, NA & Global Bus. Units	533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DRIVE, SAINT LOUIS MO 63141
Sara B. Hampton	officer: VP, Cont. & Chief Acct. Off.	533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DR., SAINT LOUIS MO 63141
Timothy W Gorman	officer: VP, Controller & PAO	1475 E. WOODFIELD ROAD, SCHAUMBURG IL 60173
Donal L Mulligan	director	ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426
Robert V Vitale	director	C/O POST HOLDINGS, INC., 2503 SOUTH HANLEY ROAD, ST. LOUIS MO 63144
John J Drabik	officer: SVP, Corporate Controller	533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DRIVE, SAINT LOUIS MO 63141
Rebecca Frankiewicz	director	100 MANPOWER PLACE, MILWAUKEE WI 53212
Carlos Abrams-rivera	director	THE KRAFT HEINZ COMPANY, 200 E. RANDOLPH STREET SUITE 7600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Hannah K Kim	officer: CLO & Corp. Secretary	533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DRIVE, SAINT LOUIS MO 63141
John Eddy Klein	director	ONE PINE VALLEY DRIVE, ST. LOUIS MO 63124
Emily K Boss	officer: VP, General Counsel	ENERGIZER, 533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DRIVE, SAINT LOUIS MO 63141
Susan K Drath	officer: VP, Chief HR Officer	533 MARYVILLE UNIVERSITY DRIVE, SAINT LOUIS MO 63141