Earth Science Tech (Earth Science Tech) Predictability Rank

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What is Earth Science Tech Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Earth Science Tech Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Earth Science Tech (Earth Science Tech) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Earth Science Tech Inc (OTCPK:ETST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8950 SW 74th CT, Suite 101, Miami, FL, USA, 33156

Website

https://www.earthsciencetech.com

Earth Science Tech Inc is a diversified holding company. Currently, the company is focused on emerging prospects in the health and wellness industry.

Executives

Giorgio R. Saumat	director	449 ESPLANADE DR, MIAMI SPRINGS FL 33166
Majorca Group, Ltd.	10 percent owner	1621 CENTRAL AVE, CHEYENNE WY 90501
David Barbash	officer: Chief Sales Officer	109 SWIFT CREEK CROSSING, DURHAM NC 27713
Nickolas Salomon Tabraue	director, officer: President & Chairman	4100 SALZEDO STREET, UNIT 420, CORAL GABLES FL 33146
Wendell Hecker	officer: CFO	2606 NW 104 TH AVE #410, SUNRISE FL 33322
Gregg Gagan Hunter	director, officer: COO & Director	774 86TH STREET, MIAMI FL 33138
Michel Aube	officer: CEO & CSO	8837,RUE DE CHAMP D'EAU, MONTR?AL A8 HIP 3A6
Matthew Cohen	officer: CEO & CFO	1702 COSTA DEL SOL, BOCA RATON FL 33432
Thomas H Wright	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	1600 SOUTH DIXIE HWY., SUITE 300, BOCA RATON FL 33432
Harvey Katz	officer: CEO	2255 GLADES ROAD, #324A, BOCA RATON FL 33431
Issa El-cheikh	director, officer: President	40 EAST MAIN STREET #998, NEWARK DE 19711
Great Lakes Holdings Group, Llc	10 percent owner	3825 HUNTINGTON AVENUE, WINDSOR A6 N9E3N4