ETST (Earth Science Tech) Predictability Rank


ETST Earth Science Tech Inc ETST
37 GF Score
Price $0.16
GF Value $0.23
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 4 Warning Signs
View Full Analysis

What is Earth Science Tech Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Earth Science Tech Predictability Rank Related Terms

ETST
37GF Score
Earth Science Tech Inc ETST
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Earth Science Tech Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Earth Science Tech (ETST) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Earth Science Tech stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $0.16 is trading 30.4% below its estimated GF Value™ of $0.23. GuruFocus considers Earth Science Tech to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for ETST:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: $0.23 vs. price of $0.16 (30.4% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 37/100 with 4 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ETST stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Earth Science Tech Business Description

Address 8950 SW 74th CT, Suite 1401, Miami, FL, USA, 33156
Earth Science Tech Inc is a diversified holding company. The company focuses on the health and wellness sector. The Company's principal operating plan is to build a vertically integrated healthcare platform that combines compounding pharmacy operations, telemedicine platforms, clinical support, and direct-to-patient fulfillment. The Company's healthcare operations are supported by investments in real estate and asset management activities and a consumer products business. The core of the Company's value proposition is the seamless integration of patient care, from consultation to fulfillment.
37GF Score

Get the complete analysis for ETST

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$0.16
Price
$0.23
GF Value