What is Franklin BSP Realty Trust Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Franklin BSP Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Franklin BSP Realty Trust (Franklin BSP Realty Trust) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1345 Avenue of the Americas, Suite 32A, New York, NY, USA, 10105
Franklin BSP Realty Trust Inc is a private real estate investment trust that originates, acquires, and manages a diversified portfolio of commercial real estate debt, and first mortgage loans. secured by properties located in the United States.
Executives
| Michael Comparato |
officer: President |
C/O FRANKLIN BSP REALTY TRUST, INC., 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, SUITE 32A, NEW YORK NY 10105 |
| Joe Dumars |
director |
1400 SCENIC COURT, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302 |
| Buford H Ortale |
director |
104 WRAUDMONT BOULEVARD, SUITE 240, NASHVILLE TN 37205 |
| Richard J Byrne |
director, officer: Chairman, CEO and President |
350 PARK AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Jerome S. Baglien |
officer: CFO, COO and Treasurer |
9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4920, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Michelle P Goolsby |
director |
1225 SEVENTEENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Gary Keiser |
director |
8401 N CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, STE 800, DALLAS TX 75225 |
| Patsy Joseph Augustine |
director |
8401 N CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 800, DALLAS TX 75225 |
| Jamie Handwerker |
director |
9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4920, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Peter J Mcdonough |
director |
405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Elizabeth K. Tuppeny |
director |
C/O AMERICAN REALTY CAPITAL PROPERTIES, 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Matthew Donnelly |
officer: President and COO |
405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Donald R Ramon |
officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer |
INVESCO LTD., 1555 PEACHTREE STREET NE, ATLANTA GA 30309 |
| William M Kahane |
director |
AMERICAN REALTY CAPITAL, 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Nicholas S Schorsch |
director, officer: Chairman of Bd. of Dir. & CEO |
|
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