GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Focus Universal Inc (NAS:FCUV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Focus Universal (Focus Universal) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is Focus Universal Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Focus Universal Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Focus Universal Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Focus Universal's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Focus Universal (Focus Universal) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Focus Universal Inc (NAS:FCUV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
WRAP SOTK GNSS BKSY CPTN LUNA GWSO SCND AATC SCTC TSE:6861 FTV OSTO:HEXA B KEYS GRMN TDY TRMB TSE:7701 CGNX ST
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2311 East Locust Court, Ontario, CA, USA, 91761
Website
https://www.focusuniversal.com
Focus Universal Inc develops and manufactures universal smart device. Its products portfolio include Universal Smart Instrumentation Platform, Ubiquitor, Universal Smart Controller, and Sensors. The company also supplies various air filtration systems. The Company consists of three types of operations- Focus and Focus Shenzhen (Corporate), Perfecular and Lusher (IoT Products), AVX (IoT Installation Services). Majority of revenue is generated from IoT Installation Services. IoT Installation Services segment is an IoT installation and management company specializing in high performance and easy to use audio/video, home theater, lighting control, automation, and integration.
Executives
Sheri Lofgren director C/O LOGICAL CHOICE CORPORATION, 1045 PROGRESS CIRCLE, LAWRENCEVILLE GA 30043
Michael Ross Pope director 1045 PROGRESS CIRCLE, LAWRENCEVILLE, GEORGIA GA 30043
Gregory S Butterfield director 3301 N. THANKSGIVING WAY, SUITE 500, LEHI UT 84043
Carine S. Clark director 772 UTAH VALLEY DRIVE, AMERICAN FORK UT 84003
Duncan Lee officer: Chief Financial Officer 20511 EAST WALNUT DRIVE NORTH, WALNUT CA 91789
Jennifer Lingjie Gu director, 10 percent owner 2501 CROW FOOT LANE, DIAMOND BAR CA 91748
Edward Shihai Lee director, 10 percent owner, officer: President 2501 CROW FOOT LANE, DIAMOND BAR CA 91748
Desheng Wang director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO and Secretary 140 SOUTH ROOSEVELT AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91107