JFrog (FROG) Predictability Rank

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What is JFrog Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

JFrog Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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JFrog (FROG) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » JFrog Ltd (NAS:FROG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

270 E. Caribbean Drive, Sunnyvale, CA, USA, 94089

Website

https://www.jfrog.com

JFrog Ltd provides an end-to-end, hybrid, universal DevOps Platform that powers and controls the software supply chain, enabling organizations to continuously and securely deliver software updates across any system. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from Israel. Its product portfolio includes JFrog Artifactory; JFrog Pipelines; JFrog Xray; JFrog Distribution; JFrog Artifactory Edge; JFrog Mission Control and JFrog Insight.

Executives

Frederic Simon	director	C/O JFROG LTD, 270 E. CARIBBEAN DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Ben Haim Shlomi	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O JFROG LTD, 270 E CARIBBEAN DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Yoav Landman	director, officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O JFROG LTD, 270 E CARIBBEAN DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Tali Notman	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O JFROG LTD, 270 E CARIBBEAN DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Yakov (jacob) Shulman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MELLANOX TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 350 OAKMEAD PARKWAY, SUITE 100, SUNNYVALE CA 94085
Yossi Sela	director, 10 percent owner	GEMINI ISRAEL FUNDS, 9 HAMENOFIM STREET, HERZLIYA PITUACH L3 46725
Elisa Steele	director	1601 CLOVERFIELD BLVD, STE 620 SOUTH, SANTA MONICA CA 90404
Jeff Horing	director	INSIGHT PARTNERS, 680 5TH AVENUE 8TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Yvonne Wassenaar	director	C/O FORRESTER RESEARCH, INC., 60 ACORN PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Meerah Rajavel	director	C/O JFROG LTD., 270 E CARIBBEAN DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Andrew L. Vitus	director, 10 percent owner	C/O SCALE VENTURE PARTNERS, 950 TOWER LANE, SUITE 700, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Gemini Israel V Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	1 ABBA EBAN AVENUE, MERKAZIM 2001,, BLDG A, 3RD FLOOR, HERZLIYA L3 00000
Scale Venture Partners Iv, L.p.	10 percent owner	950 TOWER LANE, SUITE 1150, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Stacey Bishop	10 percent owner	950 TOWER LANE, SUITE 700, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Gemini Partners Investors V L.p.	10 percent owner	1 ABBA EBAN AVENUE, MERKAZIM 2001,, BLDG A, 3RD FLOOR, HERZLIYA L3 00000