FS Bancorp (FS Bancorp) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2012. Start your Free Trial

What is FS Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

FS Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

FS Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of FS Bancorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

FS Bancorp (FS Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » FS Bancorp Inc (NAS:FSBW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

6920 220th Street South West, Mountlake Terrace, WA, USA, 98043

Website

https://www.fsbwa.com

FS Bancorp Inc is the holding company of 1st Security Bank, a diversified lender with a focus on the origination of commercial real estate, one-to-four-family, and home equity loans, consumer loans, including a variety of indirect home improvement (fixture secured loans), and marine loans, and commercial business loans. It has two operating segments; The commercial and consumer banking segment provides diversified financial products and services to its commercial and consumer customers through Bank branches, automated teller machines, online banking platforms, mobile banking apps, and telephone banking, and The home lending segment originates one-to-four-family residential mortgage loans for sale in the secondary markets as well as loans held for investment.

Executives

Robert B Fuller	officer: Chief Credit Officer	111 NORTH WALL STREET, SPOKANE WA 99201
Stephanie Nicklaus	officer: Chief Credit Officer	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Pamela Marie Andrews	director	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Fs Bancorp, Inc.	officer: Chief Credit Officer	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Ben Crowl	officer: Chief Lending Officer	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Shana Allen	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Joseph P. Zavaglia	director	C/O FS BANCORP, INC., 6920 220TH STREET SW, SUITE 300, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Mark Tueffers	director, other: Director of the Bank	6920 220TH STREET, SUITE 300, MOUNT LAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Margaret R. Piesik	director	C/O FS BANCORP, INC., 6920 220TH STREET SW, SUITE 300, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Dennis V O'leary	officer: Chief Lending Officer	6920 220TH STREET, SW, MOUNT LAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Donn C Costa	officer: Executive VP Home Lending	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Joseph C. Adams	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O FS BANCORP, INC., 6920 220TH STREET SW, SUITE 300, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Lisa Cleary	officer: Chief Operating Officer	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Marina Cofer-wildsmith	director	C/O FS BANCORP, INC., 6920 220TH STREET SW, SUITE 300, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043
Erin Burr	officer: CRO, CRA Officer, EVP	6920 220TH STREET SW, MOUNTLAKE TERRACE WA 98043