Future FinTech Group (Future FinTech Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Future FinTech Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Future FinTech Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Future FinTech Group (Future FinTech Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Future FinTech Group Inc (NAS:FTFT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Americas Tower, 1177 Avenue of The Americas, Suite 5100, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

http://www.ftft.com

Future FinTech Group Inc is engaged in the financial technology business. The company engages in the operation of a blockchain-based online shared shopping mall platform and also operates an incubator for application projects using blockchain technology. Future FinTech and its subsidiaries are developing blockchain technology for a variety of B2B and B2C real-life applications.

Executives

Ming Yi	officer: Chief Financial Officer	PUDONG BUILDING, 2ND FLOOR, JUILING AVENUE, LONGWEN DISTRICT, ZHANGZHOU F4 363000
Yang Liu	officer: Chief Operating Officer	59 FREDERICKS ST, WEST ORANGE NJ 07052
Mingjie Zhao	director	190-19 50TH AVE, FRESH MEADOWS NY 11365
Shanchun Huang	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	PUDONG BUILDING, 2ND FLOOR,, JIULONG AVENUE, LONGWEN DISTRICT, ZHANGZHOU F4 363000
Hanjun Zheng	officer: Interim CFO	23F, CHINA DEVELOPMENT BANK TOWER, NO. 2, GAOXIN 1ST ROAD, XI'AN F4 710075
Zhi Yan	director	ROOM 03-1102, FL 11, BLDG C,SOHO,SALITUN, WORKERS' STADIUM NORTH RD,CHAOYANG DIST, BEIJING F4 0000000000
Yiliang Li	director	NO. 1803, BUILDING B, GUOHONG MANSION, MUXIDI, XICHENG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 10038
Hongke Xue	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	16F, CHINA DEVELOPMENT BANK TOWER, NO 2 GAOXIN 1ST RD, XI'AN F4 710075
V.x. Fortune Capital Ltd	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 957, OFFSHORE INCORPORATIONS CENTRE, ROAD TOWN, TORTOLA D8 00000
Skypeople International Holdings Group Ltd	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 2804, 4TH FLOOR, SCOTIA CENTRE, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-1112
Golden Dawn International Ltd	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 957, OFFSHORE INCORPORATIONS CENTRE, ROAD TOWN, TORTOLA D8 00000
Baosheng Lu	director	ROOM 501, BLOCK 3, BINGJIAO LANE, TIANSHUIJING ROAD, XI'AN, SHAANXI PROVINCE F4 710002
Tao Wang	director	32/F, CHINA MERCHANTS TOWER, 118 JIAN GUO ROAD, CHAO YANG DISTRICT, BEIJING F4 100022
Yong Ke Xue	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	16 F, NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT BANK TOWER, GAOXIN 2ND ROAD, XI'AN F4 710075
John W. Smagula	director	3036 FANSHAWE ST, PHILADELPHIA PA 19149