Arcimoto (Arcimoto) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2017. Start your Free Trial

What is Arcimoto Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Arcimoto Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Arcimoto Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Arcimoto's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Arcimoto (Arcimoto) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Arcimoto Inc (NAS:FUV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

53H0:Germany

Address

2034 West 2nd Avenue, Eugene, OR, USA, 97402

Website

https://www.arcimoto.com

Arcimoto Inc is an electric vehicle company that designs, develops, manufactures, sells, and rents three-wheeled electric vehicles in the United States. Its flagship product is the Fun Utility Vehicle (FUV) that delivers a thrilling ride experience for two passengers with cargo, parking, and operation. The company's products also comprise Rapid Responder designed to perform emergency, security, and law enforcement services; Deliverator, an electric last-mile delivery solution; Cameo, an FUV equipped with a rear-facing rear seat and a modified roof built for on-road filming; and Arcimoto Roadster, an unparalleled pure-electric on-road thrill machine.

Executives

Dan M. Creed	director	2034 WEST 2ND AVENUE, EUGENE OR 97402
Christopher W. Dawson	director	2034 WEST 2ND AVENUE, EUGENE OR 97402
Galileo Russell	director	C/O ARCIMOTO, INC., 2034 WEST 2ND AVENUE, EUGENE OR 97402
Jesse Grant Eisler	director	C/O ARCIMOTO, INC., 2034 WEST 2ND AVENUE, EUGENE OR 97402
Jesse Fittipaldi	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O ARCIMOTO, INC., 2034 WEST 2ND AVENUE, EUGENE OR 97402
Dorbin John W. Jr.	officer: General Counsel & Corp. Sec.	C/O ARCIMOTO, INC., 2034 WEST 2ND AVENUE, EUGENE OR 97402
Terry L Becker	director	C/O ARCIMOTO, INC., 2034 WEST 2ND AVENUE, EUGENE OR 97402
Nancy E. Calderon	director	1285 WAKEFIELD TRAIL, RENO NV 89523
Mark Frohnmayer	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO	C/O ARCIMOTO, INC., 2034 WEST 2ND AVENUE, EUGENE OR 97402
Joshua S Scherer	director	C/O ARCIMOTO, INC., 2034 WEST 2ND AVENUE, EUGENE OR 97402
Douglas M Campoli	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ENVIROTECH VEHICLES, INC., 1425 OHLENDORF ROAD, OSCEOLA AR 72370
Jeff Curl	director	C/O ARCIMOTO, INC., 2034 WEST 2ND AVENUE, EUGENE OR 97402
Thomas Thurston	director	909 MONTGOMERY STREET, 3RD FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94133