What is GAMCO Investors Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
GAMCO Investors Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
GAMCO Investors (GAMCO Investors) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
191 Mason Street, Greenwich, CT, USA, 06830
GAMCO Investors Inc is a provider of investment advisory services to open-end funds, closed-end funds, Exchange Traded Managed Funds (ETMFs), and institutional and private wealth management investors principally in the United States. The company invests in a variety of U.S. and international securities through various investment styles including value, growth, non-market correlated, and convertible securities. Its revenues are based primarily on the company's levels of assets under management (AUM) and fees associated with our various investment products. Its AUM are organized into three groups; Open and Closed-End Funds; Institutional and Private Wealth Management; and SICAV.
Executives
| Ggcp, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
189 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Alexis Glick |
director |
C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Associated Capital Group, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Kieran Caterina |
officer: Acting Co-CFO |
ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Van Der Eb Henry |
other: Senior Vice President |
100 CORPORATE NORTH, SUITE 201, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015 |
| Peter D. Goldstein |
officer: General Counsel |
249 ROYAL PALM WAY, SUITE 503, PALM BEACH FL 33480 |
| Mario J Gabelli |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman of the Board and CEO |
191 MASON STREET, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Leslie B Daniels |
director |
540 MADISON, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Elisa M. Wilson |
director |
C/O GAMCO INVESTORS, INC., ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Raymond Avansino |
director |
C/O ONE CORPORTATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Frederick J. Mancheski Revocable Trust Indenture, Dated June 8, 1999, As Amended |
10 percent owner |
C/O COLLIER, HALPERN & NEWBERG, LLP, ONE NORTH LEXINGTON AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, WHITE PLAINS NY 10601 |
| Diane Lapointe |
officer: Acting Co-CFO |
ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Ggcp Holdings Llc |
10 percent owner |
140 GREENWICH AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Gabelli Securities Inc |
10 percent owner |
ONE CORPORATE CENTER, RYE NY 10580 |
| Kevin Handwerker |
officer: Executive VP & General Counsel |
|
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