Gen Digital (Gen Digital) Predictability Rank

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What is Gen Digital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Gen Digital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Gen Digital (Gen Digital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Gen Digital Inc (NAS:GEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GEN:Mexico SYM:Germany GEN:Czech Republic

Address

60 E. Rio Salado Parkway, Suite 1000, Tempe, AZ, USA, 85281

Website

https://www.gendigital.com

Gen is a cybersecurity pure-play that offers security, identity protection, and privacy solutions to individual consumers. The firm's cyber safety offerings, via brands such as Norton, Avast, and LifeLock, have long maintained their positions as some of the most recognizable consumer-focused security and identity-protection products.

Executives

Ondrej Vlcek	officer: President	110 HIGH HOLBORN, LONDON X0 WC1V 6JS
Natalie Marie Derse	officer: CFO	60 E RIO SALADO PARKWAY, SUITE 1000, TEMPE AZ 85281
Pavel Baudis	director	110 HIGH HOLBORN, LONDON X0 WC1V 6JS
Peter A Feld	director	201 E LAS OLAS BOULEVARD, SUITE 1000, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33301
Emily Heath	director	60 E RIO SALADO PARKWAY, SUITE 1000, TEMPE AZ 85281
Sherrese M Smith	director	C/O CABLE ONE, INC., 210 E EARLL DRIVE, PHOENIX AZ 85012
Matthew Charles Brown	officer: VP, Finance & CAO	350 ELLIS STREET, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Samir Kapuria	officer: EVP, Cyber Security Services	350 ELLIS STREET, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Eric Brandt	director	C/O DENTSPLY SIRONA INC, 13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Bryan Seuk Ko	officer: EVP, General Counsel and Secre	80 E RIO SALADO PARKWAY, SUITE 1000, TEMPE AZ 85281
Nora Denzel	director	C/O OVERLAND STORAGE, INC., 4820 OVERLAND AVENUE, SAN DIEGO CA 92123
Slp Iv Seal Ii Gp, L.l.c.	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Slp Iv Seal Ii Holdings, L.p.	director	C/O SILVER LAKE, 2775 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 100, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Vincent Pilette	officer: EVP, Finance	303 VELOCITY WAY, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
Gregory S. Clark	director, officer: CEO	EMULEX CORPORATION, 3333 SUSAN STREET, COSTA MESA CA 92626