What is Genco Shipping & Trading Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Genco Shipping & Trading Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Genco Shipping & Trading (Genco Shipping & Trading) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
299 Park Avenue, 12th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10171
Genco Shipping & Trading Ltd is an international shipping company specializing in the transportation of iron ore, coal, grain, steel products and other drybulk cargoes. It is involved in the ocean transportation of drybulk cargoes. The company operates in one segment, the ocean transportation of drybulk cargoes through the ownership and operation of drybulk carrier vessels. It generates revenue through time charter agreements, spot market voyage charters, pool agreements and spot market-related time charters.
Executives
| Peter George Allen |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LIMITED, 299 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171 |
| Arthur L Regan |
director |
C/O ARLINGTON TANKERS LTD, THE HAYWARD BUILDING 22 BERMUDIANA ROAD, HAMILTON HM 11 D0 -- |
| Jesper Christensen |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LIMITED, 299 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171 |
| Robert E Hughes |
officer: Chief Operations Officer |
GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LIMITED, 299 PARK AVE., 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171 |
| Apostolos Zafolias |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING, 299 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171 |
| John C Wobensmith |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
35 WEST 56TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Joseph Adamo |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING, 299 PARK AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171 |
| Ccp Ii Cayman Gp Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
375 PARK AVE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152 |
| Centerbridge Credit Partners, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
375 PARK AVENUE, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10152 |
| Karin Y Orsel |
director |
HOGELANDSTERWEG 14, FARMSUM P7 9936 BH |
| Apollo Management Holdings Gp, Llc |
10 percent owner |
9 W. 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Strategic Value Partners, Llc |
10 percent owner |
100 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Daniel Han |
director |
GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LIMITED, 299 PARK AVE., 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10171 |
| Kathleen C Haines |
director |
P.O. BOX 385, COS COB CT 06807 |
| Christoph O Majeske |
director |
17001 NORTHCHASE DR., STE. 100, HOUSTON TX 77060 |
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