Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital) Predictability Rank

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What is Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital (Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc (NYSE:HASI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

OUT UNIT EPR FPI LAND NLCP PCH AFCG CORR PW AMT EQIX CCI DLR SBAC WY IRM GLPI LAMR RYN

Traded in Other Exchanges

6HA:Germany 6HA:Germany

Address

One Park Place, Suite 200, Annapolis, MD, USA, 21401

Website

https://www.hannonarmstrong.com

Hannon Armstrong Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc provides debt and equity financing to the energy markets in the United States. The company focuses on investments in two types of projects: energy-efficiency projects and renewable-energy projects. Energy-efficiency projects reduce the energy use and energy cost of building or facility through the improvement or installation of building components including heat, ventilation, and air conditioning systems; lights; energy controls; roofs; windows; building shells; and heat and power systems. Renewable-energy projects deploy cleaner energy sources such as solar and wind to generate power production. The company also provides financing solutions for other projects to improve energy efficiency and the environment.

Executives

Clarence D Armbrister	director	C/O HANNON ARMSTRONG, 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Richard Santoroski	officer: EVP and Chief Risk Officer	4300 WILSON BOULEVARD, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Marc T. Pangburn	officer: EVP and Co-CIO	C/O HANNON ARMSTRONG, 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Jeffrey Lipson	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O HANNON ARMSTRONG, 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Teresa Brenner	director	1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD, SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Richard J Osborne	director	C/O HANNON ARMSTRONG, 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD, SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Jeffrey Eckel	director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO	1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Nathaniel Rose	officer: EVP & COO	1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Daniel K. Mcmahon	officer: EVP	1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD, SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Charles Melko	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O HANNON ARMSTRONG, 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Steven Chuslo	officer: General Counsel & EVP	1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Susan D Nickey	officer: EVP and Chief Client Officer	C/O HANNON ARMSTRONG, 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD. SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Kimberly A. Reed	director	C/O MOMENTUS INC., 3050 KENNETH ST., SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Steven G Osgood	director	6745 ENGLE ROAD, SUITE 300, MIDDLEBURG HEIGHTS OH 44130
Lizabeth A Ardisana	director	328 S. SAGINAW ST., FLINT MI 48430