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HASI (HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital) Predictability Rank


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What is HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Predictability Rank?

4.5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Predictability Rank Related Terms

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HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc (NYSE:HASI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HTGC UTG NEA BUR APAM FHI CSQ EXG NAD DNP BLK KKR BX TSX:BAM OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN APO LSE:III AMP ARES
Traded in Other Exchanges
0J2Z:UK 6HA:Germany
Address
One Park Place, Suite 200, Annapolis, MD, USA, 21401
Website
https://www.hasi.com
HA Sustainable Infrastructure Capital Inc is an investor in sustainable infrastructure assets advancing the energy transition. Its investment is focused on actively partnering with clients to deploy capital in income-generating real assets that are supported by long-term recurring cash flows. This enabled to the generation of attractive risk-adjusted returns and provided stockholders with diversified exposure to the energy transition.
Executives
Marc T. Pangburn officer: EVP and Co-CIO C/O HANNON ARMSTRONG, 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Jeffrey Eckel director, officer: Chairman, President & CEO 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Nathaniel Rose officer: EVP & COO 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Clarence D Armbrister director C/O HANNON ARMSTRONG, 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Richard Santoroski officer: EVP and Chief Risk Officer 4300 WILSON BOULEVARD, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Jeffrey Lipson officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O HANNON ARMSTRONG, 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Teresa Brenner director 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD, SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Richard J Osborne director C/O HANNON ARMSTRONG, 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD, SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Daniel K. Mcmahon officer: EVP 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD, SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Charles Melko officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O HANNON ARMSTRONG, 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Steven Chuslo officer: General Counsel & EVP 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD., SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Susan D Nickey officer: EVP and Chief Client Officer C/O HANNON ARMSTRONG, 1906 TOWNE CENTRE BLVD. SUITE 370, ANNAPOLIS MD 21401
Kimberly A. Reed director C/O MOMENTUS INC., 3050 KENNETH ST., SANTA CLARA CA 95054
Steven G Osgood director 6745 ENGLE ROAD, SUITE 300, MIDDLEBURG HEIGHTS OH 44130
Lizabeth A Ardisana director 328 S. SAGINAW ST., FLINT MI 48430