HF Sinclair (HF Sinclair) Predictability Rank

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What is HF Sinclair Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HF Sinclair Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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HF Sinclair (HF Sinclair) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » HF Sinclair Corp (NYSE:DINO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HL80:Germany HL80:Germany

Address

2828 North Harwood, Suite 1300, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201

Website

https://www.hfsinclair.com

HF Sinclair is an integrated petroleum refiner that owns and operates seven refineries serving the Rockies, midcontinent, Southwest, and Pacific Northwest, with a total crude oil throughput capacity of 678,000 barrels per day. It can produce 380 million gallons of renewable diesel annually. It holds a marketing business with over 300 distributors and 1,500 wholesale branded sites across 30 states. It also has a 47% ownership stake in Holly Energy Partners, which owns and operates petroleum product pipelines and terminals principally in the southwestern United States, but has announced a proposal to purchase the remaining 53%.

Executives

James H Lee	director	10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE STE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024-3411
Indira Agarwal	officer: VP, Controller and CAO	2828 N. HARWOOD, SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201
Manuel J Fernandez	director	1999 BRYAN STREET, DALLAS TX 75201
Franklin Myers	director	C/O CAMERON INT'L CORPORATION, 1333 WEST LOOP S. #1700, HOUSTON TX 77027
Vaishali S. Bhatia	officer: SVP, General Counsel & Sec	2828 N. HARWOOD ST., SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201
Valerie Pompa	officer: EVP, Operations	2828 N. HARWOOD ST., SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201
Michael Jennings	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Steven Ledbetter	officer: EVP, Commercial	2828 N. HARWOOD ST., SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201
Carol Holding	10 percent owner	550 EAST SOUTH TEMPLE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84102
Leldon E Echols	director	P O BOX 199000, 2728 N HARWOOD STREET, DALLAS TX 75201
Anna C Catalano	director	1313 NORTH MARKET STREET, WILMINGTON DE 19894
Anne-marie Ainsworth	director	333 CLAY STREET, SUITE 2400, HOUSTON TX 77002
Robert J. Kostelnik	director	10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024-3411
R Craig Knocke	director	2828 N HARWOOD SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201
Atanas H Atanasov	officer: EVP and CFO	C/O NGL ENERGY PARTNERS LP, 6120 S. YALE AVENUE, SUITE 805, TULSA OK 74136