Huntington Ingalls Industries (Huntington Ingalls Industries) Predictability Rank

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What is Huntington Ingalls Industries Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Huntington Ingalls Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Huntington Ingalls Industries (Huntington Ingalls Industries) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc (NYSE:HII) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

CW WWD BWXT HXL DRS MOG.A AVAV TXT SPR AXON RTX LMT BA XPAR:AIR NOC GD XPAR:SAF TDG LSE:BA. LHX

Traded in Other Exchanges

HI4:Germany H1II34:Brazil

Address

4101 Washington Avenue, Newport News, VA, USA, 23607

Website

https://www.huntingtoningalls.com

Huntington Ingalls Industries is the largest independent military shipbuilder in the U.S., spun off of Northrop Grumman in 2011. It operates three segments, two of which are historied shipyards: Ingalls produces non-nuclear-powered ships including amphibious landing ships and Arleigh Burke-class destroyers while Newport News produces nuclear-powered ships as the only producer of Gerald Ford-class aircraft carriers and a major subcontractor on Virginia and Columbia-class nuclear submarines. Huntington Ingalls shares production of destroyers and nuclear submarines with General Dynamics' Bath Iron Works and Electric Boat shipyards, respectively. The company's Mission Technologies segment produces uncrewed sea vessels and provides a range of IT and other services to U.S. government agencies.

Executives

Jennifer R. Boykin	officer: Vice President, Engineering	C/O HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC., 4101 WASHINGTON AVENUE, NEWPORT NEWS VA 23607
D R Wyatt	officer: Corp VP & Treasurer	C/O HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC., 4101 WASHINGTON AVENUE, NEWPORT NEWS VA 23607
Craig S. Faller	director	C/O HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC., 4101 WASHINGTON AVE., NEWPORT NEWS VA 23607
Chad N. Boudreaux	officer: Ex VP & Chief Legal Officer	C/O 4101 WASHINGTON AVENUE, BLDG 909-7, NEWPORT NEWS VA 23607
Nicolas G Schuck	officer: Corp VP, Controller & CAO	C/OHUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, 4101 WASHINGTON AVENUE, NEWPORT NEWS VA 23607
Christopher W. Soong	officer: Ex VP & CIO	C/O HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC., 4101 WASHINGTON AVE., NEWPORT NEWS VA 23607
Hughes Edmond E. Jr.	officer: Ex VP & Chief HR Officer	C/O HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC., 4101 WASHINGTON AVE. BLDG 909-7, NEWPORT NEWS VA 23607
Green Edgar A Iii	officer: Ex VP, Pres. HII Technical Sol	C/O HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC., 4101 WASHINGTON AVENUE, NEWPORT NEWS VA 23607
Anastasi D Kelly	director	88317 WOODLEA MILL ROAD, MCLEAN VA 22102
Eric D. Chewning	officer: Ex VP, Strategy & Development	C/O HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC., 4101 WASHINGTON AVE., NEWPORT NEWS VA 23607
Leo P Denault	director
Todd A. Borkey	officer: Ex VP & Chief Technology Offic	C/O HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC., 4101 WASHINGTON AVE., NEWPORT NEWS VA 23607
Paul C. Harris	officer: Ex VP & Chief Sustainability	C/O HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, 4101 WASHINGTON AVE BLDG 909-7, NEWPORT NEWS VA 23607
William R Ermatinger	officer: Corp VP & Chief HR Officer	C/O HUNTINGTON INGALLS INDUSTRIES, INC., 4101 WASHINGTON AVENUE, NEWPORT NEWS VA 23607
Frank R Jimenez	director	GE HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGIES INC., 500 W. MONROE ST., CHICAGO IL 606061