Host Hotels & Resorts (Host Hotels & Resorts) Predictability Rank

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What is Host Hotels & Resorts Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Host Hotels & Resorts Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Host Hotels & Resorts (Host Hotels & Resorts) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Host Hotels & Resorts Inc (NAS:HST) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HMT:Germany H1ST34:Brazil

Address

4747 Bethesda Avenue, Suite 1300, Bethesda, MD, USA, 20814

Website

https://www.hosthotels.com

Host Hotels & Resorts owns 77 predominantly urban and resort upper-upscale and luxury hotel properties representing nearly 42,000 rooms, mainly in the United States. Host recently sold off the company's interests in a joint venture owning a portfolio of hotels throughout Europe and also sold other joint ventures that owned properties in Asia and the United States. The majority of Host's portfolio operates under the Marriott and Starwood brands.

Executives

Sourav Ghosh	officer: SVP, Business Intelligence, other: SVP, Business Intelligence	6903 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, 15TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20817
Nathan S Tyrrell	officer: VP, Corp Finance & Asst Treas.	6903 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20817
James F Risoleo	officer: Executive Vice President
Mary Baglivo	director	C/O SAATCHI & SAATCHI, 17 HUDSON STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Walter C Rakowich	director	14100 E 35TH PL, AURORA CO 80011
Mari Sifo	officer: Executive Vice President and	4747 BETHESDA AVENUE, SUITE 1300, BETHESDA MD 20814
Diana Laing	director	THE MACERICH COMPANY, 401 WILSHIRE BVLD., STE. 700, SANTA MONICA CA 90401
Herman E Bulls	director	JONES LANG LASALLE, 1801 K STREET NW SUITE 1000, WASHINGTON DC 20006
Joanne G. Hamilton	officer: Executive Vice President	6903 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20817
Joseph Ottinger	officer: See Remarks	4747 BETHESDA AVENUE, 13TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20814
Brian G Macnamara	officer: Sr. Vice President, Controller	6903 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, 15TH FLOOR, BETHESDA MD 20817
Bair Sheila Colleen	director	6903 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20817
Richard E Marriott	director, officer: Chairman of the Board	10400 FERNWOOD ROAD, BETHESDA MD 20817
Julie P Aslaksen	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Sec.	4747 BETHESDA AVENUE, SUITE 1300, BETHESDA MD 20814
Michael E Lentz	officer: Mng. Dir. - Global Development, other: Mng. Dir. - Global Development	6903 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20817