Imax (IMAX) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1994. Start your Free Trial

What is Imax Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Imax Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Imax Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Imax's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Imax (IMAX) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Imax Corp (NYSE:IMAX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IMA:Germany

Address

2525 Speakman Drive, Mississauga, ON, CAN, L5K 1B1

Website

https://www.imax.com

Imax is now primarily a technology hardware and brand-licensing company that does not operate the vast majority of Imax theaters. Instead, the firm generates revenue via selling and leasing the required proprietary equipment and via fees for digitally remastering standard films into the proprietary Imax format. The firm has expanded from 210 commercial theaters in 2008 to over 1,630 today and increased the annual number of Imax releases from 13 in 2007 to 68 in 2028. Roughly 70% of the firm's screens are in China (48%) and the U.S. (22%), but Imax has screens in 87 countries.

Executives

Calamera Pablo	officer: CTO & EVP	C/O IMAX CORPORATION, 902 BROADWAY, FLOOR 20, NEW YORK NY 10010
Kenneth Ian Weissman	officer: Sr VP & Corporate Secretary	902 BROADWAY AVE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10010-6002
Richard L Gelfond	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	902 BROADWAY, 20TH FLOOR, IMAX CORPORATION, NEW YORK NY 10010-6002
Denny Tu	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	12582 WEST MILLENNIUM DRIVE, PLAYA VISTA CA 90094
Daniel Manwaring	officer: CEO, IMAX China Holding, Inc.	IMAX CORPORATION, 902 BROADWAY, FLOOR 20, NEW YORK NY 10010
Mark Welton	officer: Executive Vice President	2525 SPEAKMAN DRIVE, C/O IMAX CORP, MISSISSAUGA A6 L5K 1B1
Gail Berman	director	902 BROADWAY, FLOOR 20, NEW YORK NY 10010
Elizabeth Gitajn	officer: SVP, Finance & Controller	2525 SPEAKMAN DRIVE, MISSISSAUGA, ONTARIO Z4 L5K 1B1
Jennifer L. Wong	director	C/O TIME INC., 225 LIBERTY STREET, NEW YORK NY 10281
Michele Golden	officer: Global Chief People Officer	902 BROADWAY, FLOOR 20, NEW YORK NY 10010
Natasha Fernandes	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2525 SPEAKMAN DRIVE, MISSISSAUGA A6 L5K1B1
Jacqueline Bassani	officer: Chief People Officer	2525 SPEAKMAN DRIVE, MISSISSAUGA A6 L5K1B1
Robert D Lister	officer: Exec VP Bus&Legal Affairs	902 BROADWAY, 20TH FLOOR, C/O IMAX CORP, NEW YORK NY 10022
Steve Pamon	director	1241 E MAIN ST, STAMFORD CT 06902-3520
Megan Colligan	officer: President IMAX Entertainment	12582 WEST MILLENNNIUM DRIVE, LOS ANGELES CA 90094