Investar Holding (Investar Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Investar Holding Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Investar Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Investar Holding (Investar Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Investar Holding Corp (NAS:ISTR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7ZH:Germany

Address

10500 Coursey Boulevard, Baton Rouge, LA, USA, 70816

Website

https://www.investarbank.com

Investar Holding Corp is a US-based financial holding company. Through its subsidiaries, it offers a variety of commercial and retail lending products throughout its market areas, including business loans to small to medium-sized businesses, as well as loans to individuals. It has business operations spread across the United States and serves its customers through several service branches. The bank also offers cashiers' checks, direct deposit of payroll and Social Security checks, night depository, bank-by-mail, automated teller machines with deposit automation and debit cards.

Executives

John J D'angelo	officer: Chief Executive Officer	418 PECAN MEADOW DRIVE, BATON ROUGE LA 70810
Andrew C Nelson	director	3235 MCCONNELL DRIVE, BATON ROUGE LA 70809
Linda M Crochet	officer: Chief Operations Officer	10500 COURSEY BLVD, BATON ROUGE LA 70816
Anita M Fontenot	director	217 WORTH AVENUE, LAFAYETTE LA 70508
Julio A Melara	director	18580 SANTA MARIA DRIVE, BATON ROUGE LA 70809
James E Yegge	director	19434 S LAKEWAY AVENUE, BATON ROUGE LA 70810
Rose J Hudson	director	555 LAUREL STREET, BATON ROUGE LA 70801
William H Hidalgo	director	1501 FRONT STREET P O BOX 790, MORGAN CITY LA 70381
John R Campbell	officer: Chief Financial Officer	10500 COURSEY BOULEVARD, BATON ROUGE LA 70816
Robert Chris Jordan	director	204-C EAST MAIN STREET, NEW IBERIA LA 70560
Moore Corey E	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	10500 COURSEY BOULEVARD, BATON ROUGE LA 70816
Joffrion Gordon H Iii	director	10218 VERANDA COURT, BATON ROUGE LA 70810
James M Baker	director	18423 N MISSION HILLS AVENUE, BATON ROUGE LA 70810
Jeffrey Wayne Martin	officer: Chief Credit Officer	10500 COURSEY BLVD, BATON ROUGE LA 70816
Suzanne O Middleton	director	340 LAKE AVENUE, METAIRIE LA 70005