What is GEE Group Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
GEE Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
GEE Group (GEE Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
7751 Belfort Parkway, Suite 150, Jacksonville, FL, USA, 32256
GEE Group Inc is a provider of specialized staffing solutions across the United States. The company's operating segment includes Industrial Staffing Services and Professional Staffing Services. It generates maximum revenue from the Professional Staffing Services segment. The company provides the following services, direct hire placement services, temporary professional services staffing in the fields of information technology, accounting, finance and office, engineering, and medical, and temporary light industrial staffing.
Executives
| David Sandberg |
director |
40 SE 5TH STREET, SUITE 502, BOCA RATON FL 33432 |
| John Randall Waterfield |
director |
140 BROADWAY, 46TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005 |
| Jyrl James |
director |
7751 BELFORT PARKWAY, SUITE 150,, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256 |
| Derek E Dewan |
director, officer: CEO |
7751 BELFORT PARKWAY, SUITE 150, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256 |
| Kim D Thorpe |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
275 WATER ST, STE 1400, JACKSONVILL FL 32202-1547 |
| Darla D Moore |
director |
11 WEST 42ND ST, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Matthew E Gormly |
director |
7751 BELFORT PARKWAY, SUITE 150, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256 |
| Stuckey Alexander Preston Alexander |
director |
13500 SUTTON PARK DRIVE SOUTH, SUITE 204, JACKSONVILLE FL 32224 |
| Carl T Camden |
director |
999 WEST BIG BEAVER ROAD, TROY MI 48084 |
| Thomas Vetrano |
director |
7751 BELFORT PARKWAY, SUITE 150, JACKSONVILLE FL 32256 |
| Arthur B Laffer |
director |
300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Peter J Tanous |
director |
|
| Thomas Charles Williams |
director |
150 TROTTERS RIDGE, FAYETTEVILLE GA 30215 |
| William M Isaac |
director |
C/O ASSOCIATES FIRST CAPITAL CORP, 250 E CARPENTER FREEWAY, IRVING TX 75062 |
| George A Bajalia |
director |
P.O. BOX 551125, JACKSONVILLE FL 32255 |
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