Kelly Services (Kelly Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Kelly Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kelly Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kelly Services (Kelly Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Kelly Services Inc (NAS:KELYA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KELYB:USA

Address

999 West Big Beaver Road, Troy, MI, USA, 48084

Website

https://www.kellyservices.com

Kelly Services Inc is a provider of workforce solutions and consulting and staffing services. The company's operations are divided into five business segments namely Professional & Industrial, Science, Engineering & Technology, Education, Outsourcing & Consulting, and International. Other than OCG, each segment delivers talent through staffing services, permanent placement or outcome-based services. OCG segment delivers talent solutions including managed service provider, payroll process outsourcing, recruitment process outsourcing, and talent advisory services. International also delivers RPO talent solutions within its local markets. Majority of revenue is derived from Professional & Industrial.

Executives

Tammy L Browning	officer: Senior Vice President	999 WEST BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48084-4716
Timothy L Dupree	officer: Senior Vice President	999 WEST BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48084-4716
Daniel H Malan	officer: Senior Vice President	999 WEST BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48084-4716
Olivier Thirot	officer: Senior Vice President	999 WEST BIG BEAVER ROAD, TROY MI 48084
Donald R Parfet	director	C/O 350 E MICHIGAN AVENUE STE 500, APJOHN GROUP LLC, KALAMAZOO MI 49007
Darren Simons	officer: SVP and Chief Digital Officer	999 W. BIG BEAVER ROAD, TROY MI 48084-4716
Amala Duggirala	director	PO BOX 10247, BIRMINGHAM AL 35202-0247
Inamarie Johnson	director	1019 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Terrence B Larkin	director	21557 TELEGRAPH ROAD, SOUTHFIELD MI 48033
Jane E Dutton	director	701 TAPPAN STREET, ANN ARBOR MI 49101-1234
James H Bradley	officer: Senior Vice President	999 WEST BIG BEAVER RD, TROY MI 48084-4716
Vanessa Peterson Williams	officer: General Counsel	999 WEST BIG BEAVER ROAD, TROY MI 48084-4716
Leslie A Murphy	director	4811 S CHIPPING GLEN, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48302
George S Corona	officer: Executive Vice President	2653 TOWER HILL, ROCHESTER HILLS MI 48306
James Polehna	officer: VP and Corporate Secretary	999 WEST BIG BEAVER ROAD, TROY MI 48084