Kewaunee Scientific (Kewaunee Scientific) Predictability Rank

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What is Kewaunee Scientific Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kewaunee Scientific Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kewaunee Scientific (Kewaunee Scientific) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Kewaunee Scientific Corp (NAS:KEQU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KEW:Germany

Address

2700 West Front street, Statesville, NC, USA, 28677-2927

Website

https://www.kewaunee.com

Kewaunee Scientific Corp is engaged in the design, manufacture, and installation of laboratory, healthcare, and technical furniture products. The company operates through two segments: Domestic and International. The Domestic business segment designs manufacture and install scientific and technical furniture, including steel and wood laboratory cabinetry, fume hoods, laminate casework, flexible systems, work surfaces, workstations, workbenches, and computer enclosures. The International business segment provides facility design, engineering, construction and project management from the planning stage through the testing and commissioning of laboratories. The company generates a majority of its revenue from the Domestic business segment.

Executives

Douglas J. Batdorff	officer: VP of Manufacturing Operations	2700 WEST FRONT STREET, STATESVILLE NC 28677
Ryan S. Noble	officer: VP-Sales & Marketing-Americas	2700 WEST FRONT STREET, STATESVILLE NC 28677
Elizabeth D Phillips	officer: VP - Human Resources	2700 WEST FRONT STREET, STATESVILLE NC 28677
John Russell	director	2331 MOHAWK LANE, GLENVIEW IL 60026
Hull Thomas David Iii	director, officer: President, CEO	2700 WEST FRONT STREET, STATESVILLE NC 28677
Gardner Donald T. Iii	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2700 WEST FRONT STREET, STATESVILLE NC 28677
Keith M Gehl	director	PO BOX 1017, CHARLOTTE NC 26201-1017
David Rhind	director	1450 NORTH DEARBORN STREET, APT. 1A, CHICAGO IL 60610
Margaret B Pyle	director	2700 WEST FRONT STREET, STATESVILLE NC 28677-2927
Donald F. Shaw	director	662 EAST SUNBURST LANE, TEMPE AZ 85284-1599
Mandar Ranade	officer: VP-Information Technology	2700 WEST FRONT STREET, STATESVILLE NC 28677-2927
Michael G. Rok	officer: VP of Manufacturing Operations	2700 WEST FRONT STREET, STATESVILLE NC 28677-2927
Lisa L. Ryan	officer: VP-Construction/Cust. Servs.	2700 WEST FRONT STREET, STATESVILLE NC 28677-2927
Kurt P Rindoks	officer: VP - Engineering/Prod. Dev.	2700 WEST FRONT STREET, STATESVILLE NC 28677-2927
Bhoopathy Sathyamurthy	officer: VP-Managing Director-Int'l Ops	2700 WEST FRONT STREET, STATESVILLE NC 28677-2927