Kinetik Holdings (Kinetik Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Kinetik Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kinetik Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kinetik Holdings (Kinetik Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Kinetik Holdings Inc (NYSE:KNTK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

VNOM HESM DHT NS TNK GLNG INSW LPG GEL HEP TSX:ENB EPD WMB ET LNG OKE KMI MPLX TSX:TRP CQP

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2700 Post Oak Boulevard, Suite 300, Houston, TX, USA, 77056-4400

Website

https://www.kinetik.com

Kinetik is a midstream operator that provides gathering and processing services to gas and oil producers as well as pipeline transportation. It operates exclusively in Texas, serving the Permian Basin and connecting fields with market hubs and other large pipelines. In addition to directly operating pipelines, Kinetik also holds ownership stakes in several pipelines that transport molecules to the Gulf Coast enabling it to obtain exposure to export markets and international demand.

Executives

Kevin S Mccarthy	director	C/O KAYNE ANDERSON CAPITAL ADVISORS, LP, 1800 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SECOND FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067
Jamie Welch	director, officer: See Remarks	3738 OAK LAWN AVE., DALLAS TX 75219
Apache Corp	10 percent owner	2000 POST OAK BLVD, STE 100, HOUSTON TX 77056-4400
Trevor Howard	officer: See Remark	2700 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77056
Todd Carpenter	officer: See Remarks	2001 BRYAN STREET, SUITE 3700, DALLAS TX 75201
Matthew Wall	officer: Executive Vice President, COO	2700 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77056
Steven Stellato	officer: See Remarks	645 HAMILTON STREET, SUITE 500, ALLENTOWN PA 18101
Anne Psencik	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	2700 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77056
Jesse Krynak	director	2700 POST OAK BLVD., SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77056
Deborah L Byers	director	C/O EXCELERATE ENERGY, INC., 2445 TECHNOLOGY FOREST BLVD., LEVEL 6, THE WOODLANDS TX 77381
Ronald Schweizer	director	2700 POST OAK BLVD, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77056
Bcp Vii/bep Ii Holdings Manager L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Bcp Raptor Aggregator L.p.	10 percent owner	345 PARK AVENUE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10154
I Squared Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	600 BRICKELL AVENUE, PENTHOUSE, MIAMI FL 33131-3067
John-paul Munfa	director	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154