Loews (L) Predictability Rank

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What is Loews Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Loews Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Loews (L) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Loews Corp (NYSE:L) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LTR:Germany

Address

667 Madison Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10065-8087

Website

https://www.loews.com

Loews Corp is a holding company that is supported by a variety of businesses. Its largest subsidiary is CNA Financial Corporation, a property and casualty insurance company. CNA's services include risk management, information services, and warranty and claims administration. Loews also maintains an operation of offshore oil and gas drilling rigs through Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. The company engages in the transportation and storage of natural gas and natural gas liquids and gathering and processing of natural gas through Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP. Loews also operates a chain of hotels.

Executives

Andrew H Tisch	director	667 MADISON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10021-8087
Jonathan M Tisch	director, officer: Co-Ch. of Bd/Off. of the Pres.	667 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10021-8087
Ann E Berman	director	255 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Anthony Welters	director
Paul J Fribourg	director	667 MADISON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10021
Walter L Harris	director	TANENBAUM HARBER CO, 320 W 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Charles M Diker	director	ONE NEW YORK PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10004
Joseph L Bower	director	667 MADISON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10021
Kenneth I Siegel	officer: Senior Vice President	667 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10065
Jonathan C Locker	director	C/O LOEWS CORPORATION, 9 WEST 57TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Charles D Davidson	director	QUANTUM ENERGY PARTNERS, 1401 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 2700, HOUSTON TX 77010
Richard Waldo Scott	officer: SVP & Chief Investment Officer	667 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10065
Benjamin J Tisch	officer: Sr. VP, Corp Dev and Strategy	667 MADISON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10065
Marc A Alpert	officer: Sr. VP, Gen. Coun. & Secy.	667 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10065
Mark S Schwartz	officer: V.P., C.A.O. and Treasurer	C/O LOEWS CORPORATION, 667 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10065-8087