Lindblad Expeditions Holdings (Lindblad Expeditions Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lindblad Expeditions Holdings (Lindblad Expeditions Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc (NAS:LIND) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LI4:Germany

Address

96 Morton Street, 9th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10014

Website

https://www.expeditions.com

Lindblad Expeditions Holdings Inc provides expedition cruising and adventure travel services. The company operates in two segments: Lindblad and Land Experiences, of which Lindblad generates the vast majority of its revenue. It offers itineraries that feature up-close encounters with wildlife, nature, history, and culture, as well as promote guest empowerment and interactivity. The company operates expeditions on intimately-scaled ships and interaction between guests, crew, and the teams of scientists, naturalists, researchers, and photographers that participate in the expeditions. Lindblad operates a fleet of nine owned expedition ships and five seasonal charter vessels under the Lindblad brand.

Executives

Alex P Schultz	director	C/O LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDING, INC., 96 MORTON STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Smith, Jr. Thomas S.	director	2 PENN PLAZA, NEW YORK NY 10121
Fahey John M Jr	director	C/O NATINAL GEOGRAPHIC, 1146 17TH STREET NW, WASHINTON DC 20036
Catherine B Reynolds	director	PO BOX 9870, MCLEAN VA 22102
L. Dyson Dryden	director	305 WEST PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, TOWSON MD 21204
Michael Elliott Bisnow	director	C/O LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDING, INC., 96 MORTON STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Sven-olof Lindblad	director, 10 percent owner	96 MORTON STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Bernard W Aronson	director
Mark Ein	director
Noah Brodsky	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O WYNDHAM WORLDWIDE CORPORATION, 22 SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Dolf A Berle	director, officer: CEO	2481 MANANA DRIVE, DALLAS TX 75220
Benjamin Bressler	officer: President of Natural Habitat	833 WEST SOUTH BOULDER ROAD, BLDG G, LOUISVILLE CO 80027-2452
Trey Byus	officer: Chief Expedition Officer	96 MORTON STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Craig Felenstein	officer: Chief Financial Officer	96 MORTON STREET, 9TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
David Goodman	officer: Chief Commercial and Marketing	1334 YORK AVENUE, NEW YORK X1 10021