Lulus Fashion Lounge Holdings (Lulus Fashion Lounge Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Lulus Fashion Lounge Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lulus Fashion Lounge Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Lulus Fashion Lounge Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Lulus Fashion Lounge Holdings (Lulus Fashion Lounge Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Lulus Fashion Lounge Holdings Inc (NAS:LVLU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

195 Humboldt Avenue, Chico, CA, USA, 95928

Website

https://www.lulus.com

Lulus Fashion Lounge Holdings Inc is a fashion brand serving Millennial and Gen Z women. Its products include Fall Dresses, Winter Dresses, Sweater Dresses, Short Dresses, Casual Dresses, Wedding Dresses, and Denims, among others. The company generates the majority of its revenue from customers based in the United States.

Executives

Michael J Mardy	director
Kelly Ann Mccarthy	director	195 HUMBOLDT AVENUE, CHICO CA 95928
Caroline Sio-chin Sheu	director	256 WEST DATA DRIVE, DRAPER UT 84020
Tiffany Rose Smith	officer: Chief Financial Officer	195 HUMBOLDT AVENUE, CHICO CA 95928
Anisa Benita Kumar	director	195 HUMBOLDT AVENUE, CHICO CA 95928
Kira Yugay	director	C/O LULUS FASHION LOUNGE HOLDINGS, INC., 195 HUMBOLDT AVENUE, CHICO CA 95928
Dara Bazzano	director	100 NORTH SEPULVEDA BLVD., SUITE 1100, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
David W. Mccreight	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O URBAN OUTFITTERS, INC., 5000 SOUTH BROAD STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19112
Danielle Qi	director	C/O LULUS FASHION LOUNGE HOLDINGS, INC., 195 HUMBOLDT AVENUE, CHICO CA 95928
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board	10 percent owner	ONE QUEEN STREET EAST, STE 2500, TORONTO ONTARIO A6 0000
Norman A Fogelsong	10 percent owner	C/O IVP, 3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 2-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Dennis B Phelps	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 2-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Stephen J Harrick	10 percent owner	3000 SAND HILL ROAD, 2-250, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Crystal Landsem	officer: See Remarks	C/O LULUS FASHION LOUNGE HOLDINGS, INC., 195 HUMBOLDT AVENUE, CHICO CA 95928
Mark Vos	officer: See Remarks	C/O LULUS FASHION LOUNGE HOLDINGS, INC., 195 HUMBOLDT AVENUE, CHICO CA 95928