Mercer International (Mercer International) Predictability Rank

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What is Mercer International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Mercer International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Mercer International Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Mercer International (Mercer International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Forest Products » Mercer International Inc (NAS:MERC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AEZ:Germany

Address

700 West Pender Street, Suite 1120, Vancouver, BC, CAN, V6C 1G8

Website

https://www.mercerint.com

Mercer International Inc is a forest products company with two reportable operating segments in pulp and solid wood. Pulp segment consists of the manufacture, sale and distribution of pulp, electricity and chemicals. Solid wood segment consists of the manufacture, sale and distribution of lumber, manufactured products wood pallets, electricity, biofuels and wood residuals from sawmills and other facilities located in Germany and the United States. The company has its geographical presence in USA, Germany, China and Other countries. Majority of the revenue is generated from the Pulp segment.

Executives

Janine North	director	SUITE 1120, 700 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1G8
Alice Laberge	director	SUITE 1120, 700 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1G8
Torbjoern Loeoef	director	SUITE 1120-700 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C1G8
Thomas Kevin Corrick	director	C/O BOISE CASCADE, L.L.C., 1111 W. JEFFERSON ST., STE 300, BOISE ID 83702-5389
Cynthia Margaret Alekson	officer: VP, Controller	SUITE 1120, 700 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1G8
Wolfgang Beck	officer: Senior VP,Global Product	SUITE 1120, 700 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1G8
Carsten Merforth	officer: COO, Wood Products	SUITE 1120 - 700 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1G8
Rainer Rettig	director	SUITE 1120, 700 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1G8
Keith Purchase	director	SUITE 1120, 700 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1G8
Peter R Kellogg	10 percent owner	48 WALL STREET, C/O IAT REINSURANCE CO LTD, NEW YORK NY 10005
Bueno Estrada Juan Carlos	officer: Chief Executive Officer & Pres	SUITE 1120, 700 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1G8
Guy Arguin	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	SUITE 1120 - 700 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1G8
Eric Xavier Heine	officer: VP Sales & Marketing NA & Asia	650 WEST GEORGIA STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6B 4N8
Wolfram Ridder	officer: VP of Business Development	AM EISENBUHL 7, SELBITZ 2M D-95152
Alan C. Wallace	director	SUITE 1120, 700 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 1G8