Novavax (Novavax) Predictability Rank

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What is Novavax Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Novavax Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Novavax (Novavax) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Novavax Inc (NAS:NVAX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NVAX:Mexico NVV1:Germany

Address

21 Firstfield Road, Gaithersburg, MD, USA, 20878

Website

https://www.novavax.com

Novavax Inc is a biotechnology company that develops vaccines. The company works in the clinical stage of development with a focus on delivering novel products that prevent a broad range of diseases. Novavax works together with its wholly owned Swedish subsidiary to produce vaccine candidates to respond to both known and emerging disease threats. The company believes its vaccine technology has the potential to be applied broadly to a wide variety of human infectious diseases. Novavax develops product candidates geared toward all age demographics of the general population.

Executives

Filip Dubovsky	officer: President, R&D	C/O NOVAVAX INC., 21 FIRSTFIELD ROAD, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878
Gregory M Glenn	officer: President, R&D	20 FIRSTFIELD ROAD, #250, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878
Elaine O'hara	officer: EVP, Chief Strategy Officer	333 NORTH WARREN AVENUE, MALVERN PA 19355
John C Jacobs	director, officer: President and CEO	630 W. GERMANTOWN PIKE, SUITE 215, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Richard J Rodgers	director	C/O TESARO, INC., 1000 WINTER ST., STE 3300, WALTHAM MA 02451
James F Young	director	ONE MEDIMMUNE WAY, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878
Herrmann John A Iii	officer: SVP, General Counsel	C/O NOVAVAX, INC., 20 FIRSTFIELD ROAD, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878
Stanley C Erck	director, officer: President and CEO	20 FIRSTFIELD ROAD, #250, GAITHERSBURG MD 20878
John Trizzino	officer: SVP, CBO and CFO	9920 BELWARD CAMPUS DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
David M Mott	director	1119 ST. PAUL STREET, BALTIMORE MD 21202
James Patrick Kelly	officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer	C/O SUPERNUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 9715 KEY WEST AVENUE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Gary C Evans	director	1048 TEXAN TRAIL, GRAPEVINE TX 76051
Rachel K. King	director	C/O GLYCOMIMETICS, INC., 401 PROFESSIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 250, GAITHERSBURG MD 20879
Mcmanus Michael A Jr	director	241-02 NORTHERN BLVD, DOUGLASTON NY 11362
Margaret G Mcglynn	director	C/O MERCK & CO INC, ONE MERCK DRIVE PO BOX 100, WHITEHOUSE STATION NJ 08889-0100