What is Martin Midstream Partners LP Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Martin Midstream Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Martin Midstream Partners LP (Martin Midstream Partners LP) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
4200 Stone Road, Kilgore, TX, USA, 75662
Martin Midstream Partners LP has a diverse set of operations focused in the United States Gulf Coast region. The company's business lines include terminalling, processing, storage, and packaging services for petroleum products and by-products including the refining of naphthenic crude oil; land and marine transportation services for petroleum products and by-products, chemicals, and specialty products; sulfur and sulfur-based products processing, manufacturing, marketing and distribution; and natural gas liquids marketing, distribution and transportation services. It generates maximum revenue from the Natural gas liquids segment.
Executives
| Sharon L Taylor |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
4200 B STONE RD, KILGORE TX 75662 |
| Ruben S Martin |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO |
4200 STONE RD, KILGORE TX 75662 |
| Robert D Bondurant |
officer: Executive VP and CFO |
4200 STONE ROAD, KILGORE TX 75662 |
| Scot A Shoup |
officer: Senior VP Operations |
2029 S. CHILTON AVE., TYLER TX 75701 |
| Chris H Booth |
officer: VP/General Counsel/Secretary |
4200 STONE ROAD, KILGORE TX 75662 |
| Randall Tauscher |
officer: Executive Vice President |
KANZA OFFICE PARK, 550 NORTH 159TH ST. EAST, WICHITA KS 67230 |
| Christopher Michael Reid |
director |
100 W PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| C Scott Massey |
director |
4200 STONE RD, KILGORE TX 75662 |
| Martin Product Sales Llc |
10 percent owner |
4200 STONE ROAD, KILGORE TX 75662 |
| James M Collingsworth |
director |
1100 LOUISIANA 10TH FLOOR, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Stephen W Martin |
officer: VP Corporate Development |
4200 STONE ROAD, KILGORE TX 75662 |
| Zachary Stanton |
director |
12 ROTON AVE, ROTON AVE, NORWALK CT 06853 |
| Charles H Still |
director |
FULBRIGHT & JAWORSKI LLP, 1301 MCKINNEY, SUITE 5100, HOUSTON TX 77010-3095 |
| Wesley M Skelton |
officer: Executive VP, CA0 & Controller |
4200 STONE ROAD, KILGORE TX 75662 |
| Sean P. Dolan |
director |
4200 B STONE ROAD, KILGORE TX 75662 |
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