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Manitowoc Co (Manitowoc Co) Predictability Rank


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What is Manitowoc Co Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Manitowoc Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Manitowoc Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Manitowoc Co (Manitowoc Co) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery » Manitowoc Co Inc (NYSE:MTW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SHYF GENC MNTX TWI XOS HYFM UGRO IDEX ARTW ASTE CAT DE PCAR OSTO:VOLV A TSE:6201 TSE:6301 XAMS:EXO OSTO:EPI A TSE:6326 SHSE:600031
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
11270 West Park Place, Suite 1000, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53224
Website
https://www.manitowoc.com
Manitowoc Co Inc provides engineered lifting solutions. It designs and manufactures mobile telescopic cranes, tower cranes, lattice-boom crawler cranes, and boom trucks. It offers products under brand names such as Grove, Manitowoc, National Crane, Potain, Shuttlelift, and Manitowoc Crane Care. Its crane products serve dealers, rental companies, contractors, and government entities in diverse markets, including energy production/distribution and utility, petrochemical and industrial, infrastructure, and commercial/residential construction. Manitowoc has three reportable segments: the Americas, Europe and Africa, and the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. The Americas segment provides the largest revenue stream to the firm.
Executives
Anne E Belec director C/O THE MANITOWOC COMPANY, INC., 11270 W. PARK PLACE, SUITE 1000, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Jennifer L Peterson officer: EVP, Gen. Counsel & Secretary ONE PARK PLAZA, 11270 W PARK PLACE, SUITE 1000, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
James Steele Cook officer: EVP, Human Resources 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, SUITE 1000, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Ryan M Palmer officer: VP, Corporate Controller & POA 11270 WEST PARK PLACE, SUITE 1000, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
John Charles Pfeifer director ONE PARK PLAZA, 11270 W. PARK PLACE, SUITE 1000, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Anne M Cooney director ONE PARK PLAZA, 11270 W. PARK PLACE, SUITE 1000, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Aaron H. Ravenscroft officer: President & CEO ONE PARK PLAZA, 11270 W. PARK PLACE, SUITE 1000, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Leslie L. Middleton officer: EVP Mobile Cranes THE MANITOWOC COMPANY, INC., ONE PARK PLAZA, 11270 W PARK PL STE 1000, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Brian P Regan officer: VP, Corporate Controller & PAO THE MANITOWOC COMPANY INC ONE PARK PLAZA, 11270 W PARK PLACE, SUITE 1000, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Kenneth W Krueger director
Robert W Malone director 6035 PARKLAND BOULEVARD, CLEVELAND OH 44124
Amy Rochelle Davis director 500 JACKSON STREET, COLUMBUS IN 47201
Terrance L Collins officer: EVP Human Resources C/O ZEBRA TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION, 475 HALF DAY ROAD, SUITE 500, LINCOLNSHIRE IL 60069
Charles David Myers director ONE PARK PLAZA, 11270 W. PARK PLACE, SUITE 1000, MILWAUKEE WI 53224
Condon Donald Marion Jr director 2801 POAST OAK BLVD., SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77056